For the past couple of days, I've been watching the ZEC market and can't shake off a feeling of indescribable oppression. The price is hovering around five hundred dollars, going back and forth, seemingly pressed down by something invisible, unable to push up or fall down. The market seems to be waiting for a signal, but that signal hasn't come.

Many people may still remember that we repeatedly reminded that once ZEC broke through 700 dollars, it was time to consider gradually exiting. I don't know how many people took that advice and made reductions at that point. Looking back now, that indeed was a key node. Since then, ZEC's rise has appeared particularly difficult, with momentum clearly weakening, and now it has even fallen into a narrow range of fluctuations.

From a technical perspective, it indeed shows "ink blots." The short-term moving averages are entangled, and although the MACD mentions a golden cross, the price has not demonstrated strong breakout power, indicating that the bullish strength is not decisive. The trading volume has also shrunk compared to previous active periods, and the market participants are exhibiting strong wait-and-see sentiment. This feeling is very subtle, like a tug-of-war match where both sides are evenly matched, but you can sense one side's arm trembling slightly.

Supporting ZEC's current position are some short-term positive news. For example, a major trading platform reopened its spot trading at the end of November, which was interpreted by the market as a relaxation of regulatory attitudes, indeed bringing a wave of confidence. Additionally, publicly traded companies like Reliance Global Group announced that they would integrate their digital asset portfolio into Zcash's privacy network, which adds fuel to ZEC's "institutional story."

However, having a story is not enough. We must see the other side: in the past 24 hours, there has been a significant outflow of funds from this pool. What does this indicate? It indicates that a portion of people is taking advantage of every small rebound to distribute. This continuous selling pressure is like an ant hole on a dam, seemingly insignificant, but could potentially trigger a breach at some moment.

Therefore, I hold a rather cautious attitude towards the future trend of ZEC. Its label as a "privacy coin" is a double-edged sword in the current regulatory environment, bringing both unique application value and potential policy risks. Can its fundamentals and market enthusiasm really support it in maintaining a high position of several hundred dollars in the long term? I have my doubts about this.

In my opinion, the best strategy for the current ZEC is to engage in swing trading. Tentatively intervene at the lower end of its oscillation range, and decisively sell when it rebounds to the upper resistance level. Don't have too many grand plans or illusions. It needs time to find its true position.

As for where that "position that belongs to it" is? I still maintain my previous judgment that if the overall market cools down, or if its own narrative cannot be realized, it is very likely to experience a process of value regression, looking down for stronger support. That position may be below 100 US dollars. $ZEC ‌#反弹币种推荐