$BTC

Bitcoin is entering one of its most sluggish periods following the halving in recent years, and Citigroup describes the current environment as "halving-season chill" - a cooling off after the halving.
The term describes a difficult combination of a crushed market sentiment and mass withdrawals from spot Bitcoin ETFs – outflows that rival the worst months since the beginning of 2024.
Since October 10, American spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded nearly $4 billion in outflows, accelerating the cryptocurrency's decline and amplifying market fears. According to Citi, about $3.5 billion of this is attributed to November, putting the month on track to repeat the record negative result from February. The most affected is BlackRock's IBIT, which has lost over $2 billion. According to Citi's models, every $1 billion in ETF outflows pressures the price of Bitcoin by about 3.4%, creating a self-sustaining cycle: sales lead to declines, and declines lead to further sales.
This pullback coincides with the historically weak phase of the cycle following the halving. After the explosive rallies in 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin usually enters a cooling period, with lower liquidity, less impulsive buying, and sharper reactions to macro shocks. This year is no exception. The mass liquidations of futures in October dealt an additional blow to market psychology, sending the "Fear and Greed" index to 11, deep into the "extreme fear" zone. Even long-term holders, the usual stabilizing factor, began to realize profits.
The macroeconomic environment further intensifies the pressure. Citi notes that Bitcoin is lagging behind several key economic indicators with which it traditionally has a strong correlation, signaling that risk appetite is weakening across the financial sector. With accelerating ETF outflows and growing uncertainty, Bitcoin is dangerously close to Citi's downward target for the end of the year – $82,000.
And yet Citi sees potential turning points. A recovery in the stock markets could quickly lift sentiments in digital assets as well, and any significant regulatory clarity in the US could reduce institutional caution. Some analysts argue that the recent ETF withdrawals appear more like tactical rearrangements than a permanent withdrawal.
For now, however, Bitcoin remains in a unique, ETF-driven cooling phase – one that alters the usual rhythm following the halving and tests the patience of investors.