13:40

Happy weekend, everyone. Honestly, I didn’t expect the drop to be this deep this week—it was way beyond expectations. But actually, that’s normal, since in this market nothing is impossible. I’ve come to truly understand one thing: what the market gives us is not guarantees, but opportunities—not promises, but possibilities.

Back to the current intraday chart:
The first resistance above is at 2780-2805, which is the current upper boundary of the wide-range consolidation area. Below, 2620-2600 is the support level and potential spot for a second test, or if it breaks, it could open up a new round of downside. After all, anyone who isn’t clueless can see the big trend is bearish. The key is whether the market will form a range-bound consolidation and recovery between 2600-2805.

So for now, the intraday strategy is:
Longs: focus on 2600-2620, with stops below 2600 or the low after a wick.
Shorts: 2780-2805, and if it pushes higher, watch around 2850.
Currently, the market is in a large one-sided move, and it’s hard to manage with small timeframes. That’s also why I haven’t given calls the past couple of days. Previously, I said going long was like being a dog, but chasing shorts also comes with stop-loss risks. Plus, there were multi-timeframe conflicts the day before yesterday, and I was leaning towards a rebound, so I kept a cautious stance.

BTC is in the 80,500-85,500 range, a wide 5,000-point zone. Unless there’s a major reversal, the main strategy is still to short at highs and follow the trend. There’s still a big chance for ETH to reach 2360 and BTC to hit 75,000. However, at this stage, the structure, psychology, and market sentiment are all in a very tangled phase. So, over the weekend, whether you’re long or short, you need to learn to take profits or at least lock in break-even on big swings. In a choppy market, it’s hard to see anything, but once a trending move happens, holding positions or getting liquidated can be very painful.

Once again, I’ve realized that stop-losses are the lifeline.

I’ll stick to this outlook for the weekend. I’ll update if anything changes. For reference only.

On Monday, I’ll start livestreaming. Hope you all can join the stream to chat and trade together, as well as discuss the market and unwind a bit.

My internet has been spotty recently, so I haven’t streamed. Starting Monday, I’ll go live every day.

Thanks for your support, everyone.