Over the past few months, my position has undergone a substantial shift: from "extremely bearish to bullish" (a crowded pessimistic sentiment that usually sets the stage for a short squeeze) to "bearish and genuinely concerned that the system is entering a more fragile phase."

This is not triggered by a single event, but is based on the following five mutually reinforcing dynamic factors:
1. The risk of policy missteps is rising. The Federal Reserve is tightening the financial environment due to uncertainties in economic data and clear signs of economic slowdown.

2. The artificial intelligence/megacap complex is transitioning from a cash-rich model to a leveraged growth model. This shifts the risk from pure stock volatility to more classic credit cycle issues.
3. Private credit and loan valuations are beginning to diverge. Beneath the surface, there are early but concerning signs of model-based pricing pressure.

4. The K-shaped economy is solidifying into a political issue. For an increasing number of people, the social contract is no longer credible; this sentiment will ultimately be expressed through policy.

5. Market concentration has become a systemic and political vulnerability. When about 40% of the weight in the index is actually concentrated in a few technology monopoly companies that are sensitive to geopolitical issues and leverage, they are no longer just growth stories, but have become national security concerns and policy objectives.