Polymarket and Kalshi are moving towards two completely different models.

Polymarket is working on Builder Codes, taking a bottom-up approach for its ecosystem and community, suitable for all types of Crypto Native developers; Kalshi collaborates with Robinhood and Coinbase, relying on centralized entities like internet brokerages and exchanges for traffic distribution, taking a path of strong alliances.

In terms of effectiveness, the Polymarket ecosystem is richer, while Kalshi is developing faster on a single platform. Polymarket has integrated over 170 types of various community ecosystems and tools, and Polymarket Builders contribute ~5% of the trading volume, which is still in its early stages; the distribution channels of internet brokers are mature, with Robinhood contributing over 50% of Kalshi's nominal trading volume since Q2, including a contribution of $2.5 billion in nominal trading volume in October alone, and has opened up a new revenue stream by charging a $0.01 commission per contract.

The collaboration between Coinbase and Kalshi is estimated to be similar, with Coinbase building a front-end traffic entry in the CEX, supported by Kalshi's underlying liquidity. Including the $3.5 billion valuation round financing that Coinbase Ventures participated in for Polymarket in 2024, the two largest Prediction Markets are now both under Coinbase's umbrella.