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The risk of going down to fill the FVG

The current market is in the 95500 range, and after a bottom divergence on the 4H chart, it has temporarily stopped falling.

The lowest point this morning was 93900.

Yesterday, I randomly had a chat with my family on Zoom for a while. I also elaborated on the new ideas yesterday, but there weren't many people who joined the Zoom, so the text also needs to catch up.

Currently, after 98 broke, I added to my position at 98200.

But 98 is not the bottom.

The current position has temporarily stopped falling, and it is possible to rebound to 98-100.

But if it goes down again, the lowest could reach the range of 93-88.

That is, there is a possibility of a small rebound at the 4H level, followed by a continued decline, or a direct continuation of the decline.

The logic behind the decline is to fill the FVG created during the rise in April.

After dropping below 98, if it goes down again to fill the FVG, it will be in the range of 93-88.

So the position of 93 might be reached, and it could even break through (although I previously predicted that it wouldn't drop below 102V, that view was incorrect, and it's important to acknowledge mistakes and correct them in a timely manner), but I tend to believe that a bottom can be found below 93.

The main macroeconomic factors for this callback are the economic losses caused by the government shutdown and the decrease in the probability of a rate cut in December due to the inability to publish data. The current probability of a rate cut in December is 50-50.

After falling to the 93-88 range, I still expect a rebound back to the 112 range, and even a potential retest of new highs in the UTAD scenario.

However, it is currently confirmed that there will be no "continuity" in the upward trend in the future. Even if a new high occurs, it will be similar to the rapid breakout at the beginning of October, followed by the appearance of a peak.

If the worst-case scenario here breaks below 88000 and goes to the equivalent 81-74 range in April, then the highest point of the dead cat bounce might only be in the 98-102 range.

This is my rough estimate of the future at the moment.

For me personally, I still hold a long position in Bitcoin and will only close it after a rebound to 112. In the worst-case scenario, I am prepared to hold it for about 2 months.

The lower accumulation points are at 92800 and 87800 (by the time it reaches 87800, there may already be significant losses, but I will still hold, fortunately the overall leverage is not high)

I do not recommend imitating my actions, but I will honestly communicate with my family.

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