⚠ WSJ: The Fed is on the brink of a split before the December meeting

Inside the agency, the sharpest conflict in all eight years of Jerome Powell's leadership has erupted.

◾️ The "Hawks" are calling for a pause, believing that inflation is rising again and businesses are ready to pass costs onto consumers.
◾️ "Doves" are wary of a recession, pointing to a weakening labor market and slowing employment.

Due to the shutdown, the government has stopped publishing key data, and each camp now relies on "private sources" and rumors.

Powell has already stated that a rate cut in December is NOT guaranteed.

Current market expectations:
• 10.12.25 — a decrease of 25 b.p. to 3.50–3.75%
• 28.01.26 — pause
• 03/18/26 — a decrease of 25 basis points to 3.25–3.50%
• 29.04.26 — pause
• 17.06.26 — pause
• 20.07.26 — a decrease of 25 basis points to 3.00–3.25%