I have recently reviewed a lot of information to clarify a question: Why does each gold bull market, which seems similar on the surface, always have a different underlying logic? I found that the rise of gold can actually be divided into three stages, like opening three doors layer by layer.

The first door always begins with fear.
In 2006, U.S. housing prices peaked, and the following year, the new century financial crisis occurred, with banks like Paribas freezing funds. The entire market started to feel like something was about to go wrong. Capital wanted to escape, investors panicked, and everyone was looking for something to help them sleep at night, so gold became a safe haven. At that time, it rose 60% over two years. Looking back, this was just the opening of the "first door."

Then, the second door appeared in the fall of 2008. Lehman Brothers collapsed suddenly, nearly draining the financial system, and the Federal Reserve had to flood the market with liquidity to save it. At that point, the logic behind gold changed from "a safe haven" to "a response to the consequences of policy." People started to wonder if the massive money printing could lead to bigger problems. So gold was pushed again, breaking through $1000, becoming a hedge.

But what truly changed the game was the third door. Quantitative easing was implemented for several years, inflation started to rise, debt levels soared, and the market began to doubt sovereign currencies. By the end of 2008, gold was still at $700, but by 2011, it had surged to $1900. This was not just speculation; it was a reassessment of "credit." When trust began to collapse, gold truly gained its soul.

Now, I believe we are in a transitional phase from the "first door" to the "second door." Safe-haven sentiment is fermenting, central banks are aggressively buying gold, geopolitical conflicts are frequent, and debt levels are reaching new highs, but the market still hasn't fully believed that easing policies will return.

My personal judgment is that if liquidity fully shifts in the next two years and inflation re-emerges, gold might have a real chance to reach $7000. It sounds distant, but based on historical patterns, it’s not impossible.