Chaos is the norm in this market; there is no order, but even within disorder, there are patterns. You need to develop your own system and follow it, letting logic replace emotions. Only then can you achieve good results in this brutal environment.

Hello everyone, I am Trader Gege. It's been a while since I last posted, as I’ve been busy with intraday trading. Some fans have been urging me to update, so today I’ll briefly share my thoughts on the current market situation. I sincerely appreciate everyone’s ongoing support and attention to my analysis, and I hope my insights can be helpful.

Today, I’ll focus only on the overall trend and direction of Bitcoin. These are just predictions for reference; if you’re a short-term trader, you might want to skip reading this. Since the end of the National Day holiday, the market experienced a violent drop, falling into an oversold zone, then entered a range-bound consolidation for over 20 days. Recently, it broke below the previous lows, briefly piercing the 100,000 mark with a spike down to 98,888. Over about a month, from the high to the low, the decline was nearly $30,000. As for the reasons behind the drop, macro market news has covered many aspects: the initial shutdown of the US government, hacking attacks, internal theft, and so on, creating a lot of uncertainty. Long-term whales and institutions have been selling off, and risk aversion has naturally increased.

There are many voices blaming Trump for “harvesting” the crypto market, but Trump is actually a double-edged sword for crypto. Yes, he’s contributing to the sell-off, but consider this: without his presidency, would Bitcoin be at its current level? Maybe yes, but not so quickly. In my view, Trump’s impact on crypto is more beneficial than harmful. So, if Trump were to be impeached or removed, the market could be affected negatively. Currently, the market is a game among institutions. Only when institutions start buying again can the market rebound. For that to happen, Trump needs to handle the current situation well, and the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and liquidity injections need to be more timely.

There are many opinions about entering a bear market now. Looking at historical cycles, the current timing does resemble past patterns. The last cycle saw Bitcoin halving after 20 years, with the bull market peaking in November 2021. The monthly candlestick patterns also suggest a top (the so-called “death spiral” pattern).

Regarding the roughly $30,000 drop, I believe this fluctuation is normal given Bitcoin’s current price. Compared to previous highs, the price is higher now, so this sharp decline can be seen as a shakeout to reduce long positions. The weekly candlestick structure still remains above the upward trendline, indicating the overall trend is still bullish.

Now, I’ll share my view on bull and bear signals. Although the weekly structure is above the trendline, the MACD has formed a dead cross, which still needs to be further confirmed. I consider the 90,000 level as the key dividing line between bull and bear. If the price stays above 90,000 and even doesn’t break below 100,000 solidly, and if it can rebound and hold above 110,000, then this decline could be a shakeout before another bullish wave, with a potential high around 131,000. Conversely, if the market rebounds but fails to stabilize above 110,000, then continues to oscillate downward or sideways, and finally breaks below 90,000, with a rebound unable to hold above 100,000, the probability of entering a bear market becomes very high.

These are my personal views on the bull and bear trend. Friends with similar thinking can use this analysis as a reference to observe the market and wait for confirmation.

This advice is for reference only. Be sure to manage your risk when entering the market, and determine your profit and stop-loss levels yourself. For specific strategies, please consult based on real-time conditions.

Alright, friends, that’s all for today. See you next time! I wish everyone continued success and smooth sailing in the crypto world! More real-time advice can be found in our internal messages. This concludes today’s brief update. For more real-time insights, follow Gege.

Written by: Trader Gege — a friend willing to help you rise again #PI #BTC #ETH