📣 [November 4th Update | Market panic spreads, market makers use Unfavourable Information to Whipsaw]

🔥 Core Event Overview
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 1.279 billion USD, with 340,000 people being liquidated, and the proportion of long positions exceeding 90%.
Unfavourable Information Threefold Strike:
1. Balancer suffers a hack with losses exceeding $120 million, triggering panic in DeFi.
2. Federal Reserve officials are intensively hawkish, with Daly, Cook, and others suggesting that "a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion," causing market expectations for a December rate cut to drop to 67.3%.
3. Institutional demand cools: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of less than 600 BTC in a single week, a significant drop from the previous level of tens of thousands.

🎯 Market Maker Intent Analysis
Use unfavourable information to whipsaw: Create panic with the Balancer hack incident + Federal Reserve's hawkish remarks, to clean up high-position long leverage, reducing resistance for subsequent upward movement.
Institutions are quietly accumulating, Bitcoin has approached the key support level of 106,300-106,800 multiple times, while the market maker is gradually buying in during retail panic selling.
The long-short ratio is unbalanced, with longs accounting for 68%, using high leverage long positions for targeted strikes.

⚔️ Today's Contract Strategy
(Position ≤ 30%, strictly implement stop loss)
BTC
106,200-106,500 (light position try long) stop loss 105,800
108,200-109,500 (stagnation short sell) stop loss 110,200

ETH
3,580-3,620 (Oversold Rebound) Stop Loss 3550
3,880-3,920 (Resistance Test) Stop Loss 4000

🌪️ Risk Warning
1. On-chain selling pressure: Long-term holders sold 104,000 BTC in a month, reaching a new high since mid-July.
2. Regulatory tightening: The EU plans to expand ESMA's regulatory authority to create a "European SEC".
3. Extreme Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 21 (Extreme Fear), which can easily trigger irrational selling.

💎 Reminder
> Market maker often initiates a rebound after completing a "double kill" of long and short positions using Unfavourable Information, usually when retail investors are in despair.
> Current strategy: Test long at support level + reverse at key resistance level, refuse any holding positions!

(Did you bottom out today?)

The strategy is based on data from 11:30 on the 4th, compiled from CoinGlass and ChainCatcher. The views do not constitute investment advice #加密市场观察 #今日你看涨还是看跌？ .