Interest rates have been lowered, and the market has also fallen. Seeing everyone so confused, I might as well write a few words.

Under the premise that the underlying logic is already clear, it is also quite normal to anticipate market pullbacks. Everything that needed to be written has been included in the previous updates. If you can see it, if you have looked carefully, if you have thought seriously, or if you now review the discussions in the comment section, you will find that the predictions and the actual market conditions are actually not very different.

Lying in bed with my phone at dawn, I watched Old Bao's speech the whole time. This kind of double-sided rhetoric, where one side is a dove and the other a hawk, won't surprise you once you get used to it; it's still the same familiar routine. Don't forget that he is also just doing a job. After all, he is not alone; he is a pawn in the struggle between one group and another.

The cryptocurrency market has indeed been difficult recently, but this kind of volatile recovery trend can also be anticipated. It seems we have forgotten the damage caused by 1011 to this circle; it not only took away many people from this market but also made outside funds hesitant. We also seem to have forgotten that we are still in a situation where the beautiful country's government is at a standstill, and the people across the sea are still living in "deep water and fire." For a venture capital market that is extremely reliant on news, perhaps now is really not a "good" time to enter.

Recently, the US stock index continues to maintain its myth, the popularity of a certain Alpha remains undiminished, gold prices are frequently pushing up, and the TACO trading by Chuan Jianguo has created a group of legendary traders. I even heard that our Da Mian A has also returned to 4000 points, yet we here are still in limbo. When you can look past the problems and see the essence, you will understand what it means for the crypto circle to be defined as an ATM by Wall Street institutions over the past two years.

The players and rules here are much more savage and violent compared to traditional financial markets. There are hardly any value targets to play with. Once you enter the circle, you will find that almost everyone is a gambler, and everyone hopes to make quick money. Therefore, to harvest the chips from this group of astute individuals, you must use some methods that exceed the common understanding. The slower you torment them, the faster they will give in.

Some people advised me to pull out my funds and leave the crypto circle, but I haven't thought about it yet. First, the average price of the chips I hold is still acceptable. Second, the amount of funds is not large, and diversifying investments is not as good as playing with some assets I can understand. Third, I have faith in BTC and my own understanding of some altcoins, plus some of the money is not to be touched and can be held until retirement.

While writing this text, I looked at the on-chain data. Since last night, $800 million has been liquidated, and the ratio of contracts to spot has already reached 1/5. The liquidity of funds in the market is gradually being drained, and many mainstream cryptocurrencies are showing negative funding rates. Players' sentiment is certainly not going to improve in the short term. Therefore, there is no need to expect a quick unilateral rally, nor should we fear that BTC has entered a bear market. These are all "anchors" that have been unconsciously planted in our hearts by the overwhelming flood of various messages. After so many years of playing, fear and worry will not make you money; optimism and caution will.

If you still feel confused at this moment, try to look at fewer updates and news. The market and media are quite magical; I browsed around and found that most self-media outlets collectively ignored the Federal Reserve's official statement on stopping the balance sheet reduction, instead focusing on the possibility of not lowering interest rates in December. Stopping QT means that hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity will enter various markets each month, and under the influence of continuous interest rate cuts and stopping QT, liquidity in the crypto circle will definitely gradually increase. So you don't need to listen to what they are saying, but rather observe what they are doing.

After 1011, institutional funds have continued to flow in quietly, especially after the gold price turned downwards. Do you know how the relationship between gold and BTC has been in historical data? If you do, you shouldn't feel very hesitant.

I also saw a piece of news that the amount of ETH hoarded as strategic reserve by companies has also surpassed BTC. BTC is not everything in cryptocurrency; without the applications and extensions of altcoins, our so-called WEB3 industry cannot talk about development and the future, let alone changing the world. If you can think from this perspective, the rise of altcoins will definitely come, it’s just a matter of whether you have the vision and determination to hold on.

If you look at a bull, you will naturally find 100 reasons to support it; if you look at a bear, you can easily find the viewpoint you want. The current dynamic should be driven by big data push from information silos. Whatever you like to see, whatever you agree with, you will see more of. So I encourage you, in times of confusion, to learn to think in reverse, rather than live in anxiety.

The four-year cycle narrative consensus has been broken, and the operational logic and experience of the past cryptocurrency market have basically become ineffective in this round. The main players may want this result: as more people are passively liquidated, more people cut losses, more people give up struggling, more people leave in disappointment, more market makers run away, more VC projects go bankrupt, and more people stop believing in the continuation of the bull market, as more people scoff at altcoin season, it may have quietly arrived.

We are now not far from this darkest moment, and what is meant to come will eventually come. Whether you believe it or not, I will still optimistically stick to my own judgment, and I can take responsibility for my account funds.

There are actually many more things I wanted to say, but I probably won't post too much publicly anymore. First, the platform gives me very little traffic, so no matter how well I write, it basically won't be pushed. Second, because there are more followers, overly subjective thoughts and opinions can easily influence your judgment. After all, our "anchors" in our hearts are different. I cannot be responsible for the funds in your account, and too many ineffective followers don't mean much to me.

It is very normal for the market to fluctuate up and down in the short term. If you have the ability, you can try short-term trading and play with grid trading. If you don't have the ability, just wait quietly for a while. If you want to enter the market, gradually build your position when the price falls. If you want to exit the market, gradually reduce your position when the price rises.

In the small bear phase of a bull market, your best action is to wait. It's still that old saying, you actually know deep down that when the cryptocurrency market is about to rally, there doesn't need to be any reason. The frantic rush of the market often catches you off guard. As long as the fundamentals of the coins you hold are sound, when you see the intraday volatility continuously narrowing, it should be the time to prepare for an explosion.

I should be free after Friday. If I have time, I will hold one or two small live streams for subscribed friends to answer some questions and chat about secrets. See you then ☕
#美联储如期降息25基点