According to current market expectations and data analysis, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (1 yard) at 2 AM tonight is extremely high (about 96%), while the probability of a 50 basis points cut is very low (about 4%). This means that the market has basically digested the expectation of a 25 basis points cut.

Here is my analysis of the possible impact on the cryptocurrency market: 1: A 25 basis point rate cut ~96% short-term volatility, long-term positive. Bitcoin may reach $120,000 to $125,000, but one must be cautious of the retracement risk of "good news being fully reflected." Mainstream altcoins may follow with a rise of 10%-20%.
2: Neutral to bullish, interest rate cut by 50 basis points ~4% strongly bullish. Bitcoin may break through $130,000 in the short term, market sentiment is exuberant, and a large amount of capital is flowing into high-risk assets, which may lead to explosive growth in altcoins.
3: Extremely optimistic, unexpected maintenance of interest rates <1% significantly retraced. Bitcoin may test the support of $100,000 to $120,000, risk assets are being sold off, and market volatility has surged. However, this could be seen as a medium to long-term buying opportunity.
In summary: A 25 basis point rate cut tonight is almost a foregone conclusion, and the market reaction will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's guidance on future policies. This is favorable for the crypto space in the long term, but short-term volatility is inevitable. Therefore, wait for the data to come in tonight before opening positions, and be sure to manage risks well. #BTC战略储备市场影响 #美联储降息预期升温 #XRP ETF上线