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[1. U.S. stock market closes mixed, Fed expectations suppress market]

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On Monday, U.S. stocks closed with significant divergence among the three major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with a gain of 0.32%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, despite rising, saw increases of only 0.09% and 0.02%, respectively, indicating nearly negligible fluctuations. The decline of heavyweight stocks like Tesla and Apple was akin to a boulder thrown into a calm lake, disrupting the market's upward momentum and dragging down overall performance; in contrast, individual stocks like Novavax Pharmaceuticals rose against the trend, vividly showcasing the intense rotation game of capital between sectors. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.17%, with Niu Technologies plunging 12% and Bilibili dropping nearly 5%, while Zai Lab rose over 6% against the trend, highlighting the stark contrasts within Chinese concept stocks and reflecting the complex and volatile nature of market investment sentiments.

From the perspective of market expectations, the CME "FedWatch" data is undoubtedly the current market's "barometer." The data shows that expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in June and July dominate, with expectations for rate cuts being extremely limited. This expectation acts like a "shackle," firmly suppressing both the US stock market and the crypto market. It is important to understand that the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is like a "valve" controlling the flow of funds in the market; under expectations of monetary tightening, the upward space for asset prices is severely constrained. However, once the Federal Reserve releases signals of easing, massive amounts of funds will flood into the market like a bursting dam, providing an endless driving force for skyrocketing asset prices. Looking back at history, bull markets often accompany periods of monetary easing.
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