#创作者成长激励计划  $2.2 Billion Worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expire: Black Swan Event Possible

Today, on Good Friday, $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts expire.
As cryptocurrency markets continue to be affected by macroeconomic uncertainty, President Donald Trump is pushing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates, but Chairman Jerome Powell is not backing down.
$2.2 Billion Worth of Options Expire Today
Today, April 18, during Good Friday celebrations, 23,221 Bitcoin options contracts will expire. According to the data, the notional value of Bitcoin options contracts expiring this Friday is $1.966 billion.
The put/call ratio is 0.96, indicating that call options are more common than put options.
When Bitcoin options expire, the maximum pain or strike price is $82,000; At this point, the asset will cause financial loss to the largest number of investors.
Similarly, crypto markets will witness the expiration of 177,130 Ethereum contracts, with a notional value of $279.789 million. The put-to-call ratio for these expiring Ethereum options is 0.84, and the maximum pain is $1,600.
This week’s options expiration event is slightly smaller than the one that crypto markets witnessed on Friday last week. According to the data, around $2.5 billion worth of BTC and ETH options expired at that time, and short-term declines increased put demand.
Traders and investors should keep a close eye on today’s developments as options expiration could lead to price volatility. However, put-to-call ratios below 1 in options trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum indicate optimism in the market. This suggests that more traders are betting on price increases.
Meanwhile, analysts are emphasizing low volatility and a flat slope. While this may indicate a calm market, historical data suggests that expiring price swings are common and could potentially signal an upcoming move.
“With volatility crushed and the slope flat, is the market preparing for the next one?” they asked.
Blackswan Incident Likely, Analysts Say
Analysts are reflecting a calm outlook, shedding light on the current market sentiment. However, they note that the market is predominantly bearish. Traders expect the volatile action to continue before revisiting the $80,000 to $82,000 levels.
Bitcoin is trading at $84,548, which is slightly above the $82,000 strike price. According to the Maximum Pain Theory, prices are likely to move towards this strike price as options expire.
Citing soft sentiment, analysts attribute this to Trump not making much news this week. However, they expect more trade wars, increased uncertainty and volatility.
“We expect the trade and tariff wars to be far from over and market uncertainty and volatility to continue for a long time,” they wrote.
They also noted that downward pressure has been created by the waning expectations of a 100 basis point rate cut for the year, citing Powell’s comments. This has led to cryptocurrencies being correlated with traditional markets.
In this context, the Analyst says that the probability of a black swan event, which is a rare, unexpected and often significant and disruptive event on the market, is higher.
“…a period of suffering when the bulls turn completely bearish and investor sentiment is relatively low. In this bad market where the bulls turn bearish, the probability of a black swan will be significantly higher,” they explained.
Traders are advised to buy out-of-the-money (OTM) put options. An option is classified as out-of-the-money when it has a strike price that is less advantageous than the current market price of the underlying asset. This means that the option has no intrinsic value, only time value (the potential to gain value before expiration).