Is Circle's stock price undervalued after a 22% plunge? Bitwise is optimistic about USDC, with a valuation potentially reaching $75 billion by 2030.

Gate News reports that in March 2026, the stablecoin issuer Circle experienced a sharp decline in stock price due to expectations surrounding the CLARITY Act, with a single-day drop approaching 22%. In response, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that the market has misjudged the policy impact; this sell-off was driven by emotion and did not reflect the industry’s long-term value.

Hougan pointed out that the core driver of the stablecoin industry is not profit sharing, but improvements in payment and settlement efficiency. Even if regulations restrict “holding coins for interest,” USDC still possesses strong network effects and use cases, especially in cross-border payments and corporate settlements. Based on this, Bitwise projects that Circle’s valuation could reach $75 billion by 2030.

In terms of industry scale, Citigroup has raised its baseline forecast for the stablecoin market to $1.9 trillion, with an optimistic scenario of $4 trillion. This growth mainly stems from expanding corporate payments, e-commerce, and global demand for dollar alternatives, rather than a single profit mechanism.

Regarding business models, Circle’s current main revenue comes from interest on USDC reserve assets. Data shows that its 2024 revenue is approximately $1.68 billion, with USDC circulation exceeding $75 billion and total transaction volume surpassing $6 trillion, demonstrating strong infrastructure attributes.

William Blair analysts believe that USDC is being revalued as a “payment infrastructure layer,” with its compliance system, banking partnerships, and multi-chain deployment capabilities creating long-term competitive barriers, especially in B2B cross-border settlement scenarios.

However, short-term uncertainties are accumulating. The CLARITY Act may limit stablecoin profit sharing, and Circle’s recent freeze on some wallet assets has reignited discussions about centralized risks, intensifying cautious investor sentiment.

Nevertheless, many institutions believe that if regulations ultimately unify industry rules, it could weaken competitors relying on high yields to attract users. In the long run, this would benefit issuers with stronger compliance capabilities.

At this stage, Circle’s valuation fluctuations reflect regulatory battles rather than demand decline. As stablecoins gradually integrate into the global financial system, projects with compliance and scale advantages are still seen as key beneficiaries.