BlackRock CEO Warns: Global Economy May Face Recession if Oil Prices Rise to $150 Per Barrel

The world’s largest asset management firm BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns that if international oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, the global economy could enter a recession.
In an interview with BBC Business, Fink pointed out that if Iran continues to pose regional threats and energy supplies are disrupted for an extended period, high oil prices will have a “profound impact” on the global economy.
Fink’s comments come as Middle East conflicts drive volatility in energy markets, highlighting that oil prices are not just a commodity issue but a core variable influencing inflation, consumer spending, corporate costs, and global risk asset pricing.
Fink stated that it is too early to determine the final scale and outcome of the conflict, but he believes the result will be one of two extremes. One possibility is that if the conflict is resolved and Iran becomes an internationally acceptable country again, oil prices could fall below pre-war levels. However, he warned that if that does not happen, “oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel for years, approaching $150 per barrel, which would have a deep impact on the economy,” potentially leading to a “severe recession.”
During the interview, Fink said that if conflicts related to Iran escalate and keep energy prices high for a long time, the impact will go beyond fuel costs and spill over into overall economic activity, the financial system, and household expenditures.
This warning is not unfounded. Reuters earlier this month cited Wood Mackenzie analysis suggesting that if there is a large-scale disruption in the Gulf region, oil prices could indeed rise to $150 per barrel. The firm estimates that if key Middle Eastern export routes are blocked, the global crude oil market could face a supply shortfall of up to 15 million barrels per day.
Recently, market concerns have focused on risks to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s attacks on regional energy facilities and shipping have already forced oil-producing countries, including Kuwait, to cut production, pushing prices above $100 per barrel at times. Kuwait Petroleum CEO even stated that Iran is “holding the world economy hostage.”
Oil prices recently fell back to around $100, but markets remain highly sensitive
Although the worst-case scenario has not materialized, oil market volatility remains high. After the U.S. proposed a ceasefire plan in the Middle East, markets began to bet that supply disruption risks might ease, with Brent crude falling to about $100.32 per barrel and WTI dropping to around $89.24.
This indicates that the market is currently in a tug-of-war between “rising war risks” and “hope for diplomatic de-escalation.”
Fink’s $150 figure is not the current price but a warning for an extreme scenario. However, even if current prices remain below that level, sustained high prices over time could significantly pressure inflation and consumer confidence. Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi said that if oil prices average around $125 in the second quarter, it could be enough to push the U.S. economy into recession.
Recent analyses from UK and US media also suggest that if the Middle East conflict prolongs, not only oil prices but also food prices, shipping insurance premiums, and insurance costs could rise simultaneously, further weakening already fragile consumer spending. The Wall Street Journal cited economist surveys indicating that if oil prices average $138 and stay elevated for several weeks, the risk of recession will increase significantly.
Revisiting the eve of the 2007 financial crisis?
Some analysts believe that current market signs resemble those just before the 2007 financial crisis, with soaring energy prices indicating cracks in the financial system. However, Fink stated that a repeat of the 2007 financial meltdown is unlikely.
He explained that back then, several banks failed or had to be rescued, but today’s financial institutions are much safer.
“I see no similarities at all,” he emphasized. He noted that issues affecting some funds are only a small part of the overall market, and institutional investment remains strong.