TAO Surges 18% Back to $300: Short Squeeze Ends, Key Resistance Level May Decide Next Direction

Gate News, March 25 — Bittensor (TAO) price surged strongly to $308, up 18% in 24 hours, marking the first time since November 2025 that it has broken above the $300 level. This rally pushed the price into a key resistance zone that has repeatedly held back the market over the past four months, signaling a phase of indecision.

On-chain and derivatives data indicate that the recent upward movement was primarily driven by short squeeze. From early February to mid-March, perpetual contract funding rates remained in negative territory, dominated by short positions. As the price steadily rebounded from a low of $153, many shorts were forced to close, amplifying the upward momentum. Recently, funding rates turned positive, suggesting the squeeze pressure has eased and market sentiment is becoming more neutral.

However, capital flow indicators show mixed signals. The CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) dropped from +0.20 to +0.06, despite the price reaching new highs, indicating a significant weakening of capital inflow and forming a classic bearish divergence. This suggests that the current rally is more driven by derivatives rather than sustained spot buying.

Technically, TAO is approaching a dense resistance zone between $306 and $311, where Fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels and key moving averages converge. A successful breakout and stabilization above $310 could target $350, or even challenge the $400 region.

Conversely, if the breakout fails, the price could fall back to the support zone around $275, or test the critical support at $243. The current upward trend line near $270 will be an important reference for whether the bullish structure can continue in the short term.

Amidst mixed signals from bulls and bears, TAO is at a critical turning point. Its future trajectory will depend on whether spot market funds re-enter and if the price can break through the key resistance zone.