How to Profit from the Iran War? Analysts Explain Four-Stage Framework for Investors to Build Long-Term Investment Strategy

As Qatar’s natural gas facilities are heavily damaged and the Hormuz Strait comes under Iranian control, a personal investor who has worked in four global war and conflict zones—executing overseas security operations and even participating in building natural gas plants—Radigan Carter believes that an energy shock will permeate the global supply chain within six weeks. He also states that the Federal Reserve cannot solve this war through monetary policy.

This long-term investor, who has been stationed at Middle Eastern energy facilities, today presents a comprehensive four-phase market impact analysis framework, warning that this inflationary shock is fundamentally a supply-side problem: “The Fed has no tools to repair a natural gas field that has been blown up.”

Phase 1 (Current Stage): The Market Still Denies Reality

Carter first points out that since the conflict erupted, market volatility has almost entirely followed the rhythm of Trump’s political rhetoric, with investors generally betting that the war will end quickly. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has publicly emphasized that the current situation “does not constitute stagflation,” but Israel’s bombing of Iran’s South Pars natural gas field has already turned the energy markets upside down.

Iran’s subsequent retaliatory strikes hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan natural gas facility, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export hub. QatarEnergy immediately invoked force majeure clauses, suspending all liquefaction operations. However, the chain reaction caused by the shutdown of natural gas facilities extends beyond that.

Qatar’s offshore natural gas is classified as “acid gas,” which produces liquid sulfur during refining—used in fertilizer production, chemical raw materials, copper leaching agents, and more. Therefore, the shutdown of these facilities also means a global sulfur supply cut, which will increase agricultural production costs and indirectly push up food prices.

Phase 2: Inflationary Impact Emerges

Carter presents a critical timeline: once six weeks of war have passed, inflation becomes an irreversible threshold. Before this point, even if a ceasefire is reached, energy contracts have not yet been fully renewed, and prices may still fall back; but once this critical point is crossed, even if hostilities cease, inflationary pressures will have entered the system and begun to permeate.

The specific timeline is as follows: in the first two weeks, refining margins increase first, retail gas prices at stations rise, and international oil prices have already surged about 40% above pre-war levels. In weeks three to four, shipping and logistics companies will reprice based on new fuel costs, and PPI data will start to show warning signs. From weeks five to eight, freight rate increases will flow into prices of food, construction materials, and manufactured goods, ultimately causing CPI data to trigger market panic.

The Fed has a bunch of useless economics PhDs and a printing press, but no petroleum engineers or liquefaction facilities. It cannot fix this problem with monetary policy.

(When will the Hormuz Strait return to normal? In extreme scenarios, oil prices could soar to $175.)

Phase 3: Summer Buying Opportunities—How to Select Targets?

Carter believes that the corporate earnings season in July and August will be the final moment for the market to truly reflect the “war losses.” Stock prices will decline alongside layoffs, creating clear buying opportunities on dips.

It’s worth noting that rising energy costs are accelerating the trend of AI replacing human labor. Companies facing cost pressures tend to substitute AI tools for workers rather than initiating new hiring. This creates a cruel paradox: AI increases individual company profit margins but simultaneously weakens overall economic consumption capacity.

However, this also creates investment opportunities: “Buy companies during Phase 3 that have successfully navigated the recession through AI adoption, rather than focusing solely on AI technology developers.” The productivity gains of these companies will be fully reflected in their profit figures by 2027 and beyond.

(AI increasing employee productivity tenfold does not mean the company’s value increases tenfold: where has the productivity gone?)

Phase 4: Fed’s Compromise—How to Capitalize on the ‘Energy Independence’ Narrative?

As Carter’s scenario unfolds, the political pressure from the November midterm elections will push the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September. At that point, assets bought during Phase 3 will begin to appreciate. Meanwhile, the war has exposed structural vulnerabilities in the global energy supply chain, likely leading to a bipartisan “energy independence” political agenda, promoting large-scale investments in domestic natural gas, nuclear power, and renewable energy.

Carter also believes that assets located in the Western Hemisphere and not reliant on Middle Eastern energy routes will likely receive a geopolitical premium. Copper mines, domestic energy infrastructure, and traditional industries actively adopting AI are his key focus targets.

My goal is not to predict but to build a framework that allows me to adapt as events unfold. If a real peace agreement emerges—such as the Hormuz Strait reopening—I will immediately shift my focus.

This article: “How to Profit from the Iran War? Four-Stage Analysis to Help Investors Build a Long-Term Investment Framework” originally appeared on Chain News ABMedia.