Gate News Report, March 20 — Although geopolitical conflicts typically boost safe-haven sentiment and drive gold prices higher, since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, oil and the US dollar have surged significantly, while gold has experienced consecutive declines.
Qu Rui, Senior Vice President of the Research and Development Department at Orient Securities, stated that ongoing Middle East hostilities are pushing up oil prices and increasing global inflation expectations, which may reinforce the Federal Reserve’s stance to keep interest rates unchanged, thereby suppressing precious metals. Adrian Ash, an analyst at BullionVault, said that the timing of future rate cuts by central banks will be further delayed, which is technically unfavorable for gold.
Daniell Galli, a commodities strategist at TD Securities, indicated that there are short-term downside risks in the market, and gold still has considerable room to fall, but it can still maintain the support formed during its bull market trend. Daniel Pavilonis, a broker at RJO Commodities, said that if the current conflict persists, stocks and precious metals will continue to decline, and gold prices could fall back to around $4,200 per ounce.
Nicolas Vlapeller, Global Institutional Market Director at ABC Refinery, noted that gold has held some key technical support levels on the weekly chart, and prices may rebound to around $4,800 per ounce. Carsten Munk, Head of Research at Julius Baer, stated that in the tense Middle East situation, gold can only truly rise if there is a more evident risk-averse sentiment in financial markets.
CITIC Securities pointed out that after previous Middle East conflicts, the medium-term trend of gold prices still depends on the US dollar’s credit and liquidity factors. It is expected that the continuation of loose liquidity and weakening dollar credit will continue to push up gold prices. Bank of America predicts that gold will reach $6,000 per ounce within the next 12 months, while UBS forecasts the target price of international spot gold to reach $6,200 per ounce in the coming months.
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