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Recently, market sentiment has indeed started to pick up. On Friday, I took a look at the U.S. stock market, and it seems that inflation concerns have reignited investors' nerves. The U.S. January PPI data came in higher than expected, rising 0.5% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, with core PPI also reaching a new high since July last year. This directly impacts the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's subsequent policies, causing the market to suddenly become chaotic.
What’s even more unsettling is the Middle East situation. Trump warned during negotiations that "sometimes you have to fight," and investors immediately sensed the tension. WTI crude oil surged nearly 3%, hitting a nearly seven-month high, while gold also broke through $5,200, reaching a peak of $5,279. This risk-averse sentiment pushed the entire market downward.
The three major U.S. stock indices all declined, with the Dow down 1.05%, the S&P down 0.43%, and the Nasdaq down 0.92%. Interestingly, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4% to 3.94%, hitting a four-month low. This reflects that concerns over the AI bubble have not yet dissipated, and combined with rising inflation expectations, investors are fleeing into bonds.
In individual stocks, NVIDIA continued to weaken for the second day in a row, dropping 4.16%, erasing $187.1 billion in market value. Even more serious was the heavy sell-off in the financial sector, as the recent collapse of UK mortgage lender MFS sparked fears of private credit risks, and worries about AI "stealing jobs" extended to financial stability. The KBW Bank Index fell 4.85%, the largest single-day drop since April last year, with Goldman Sachs down over 7% and Jefferies down over 9%.
On the macro level, there are several signals worth noting. UBS downgraded U.S. stocks to neutral, warning that the U.S. market faces multiple risks—high valuations, low operating leverage, and downward pressure on the dollar. However, JPMorgan has a different view, believing that fears over AI are exaggerated, and now is a good opportunity to buy quality software stocks, since full AI replacement of enterprise software is not expected until after 2028.
At the corporate level, OpenAI just completed a $110 billion funding round, with Amazon investing $50 billion, NVIDIA $30 billion, and SoftBank $30 billion, pushing its valuation to $730 billion. Dell also rose over 21%, with expectations that AI server revenue for the fiscal year will double to $50 billion. Meanwhile, Trump quickly ordered government agencies to stop using Anthropic products, claiming they tried to force the Department of Defense to comply with their terms of service, and announced a phased elimination within six months.
Cryptocurrencies are also trending downward, with Bitcoin falling 2.4% in 24 hours and Ethereum dropping 4.85%. Overall, the resurgence of inflation, escalating geopolitical tensions, and AI bubble fears—these three forces stacking together—have made the market quite chaotic in the short term.