Lately, watching the market feels more like watching interest rates... When interest rates rise, everyone's risk appetite shrinks, and on-chain capital flows become much more honest: stablecoins increase a bit, and borrowing leverage is less daring, so positions naturally tighten. To put it simply, macro factors don't necessarily directly determine the rise or fall, but they decide whether you're willing to hold through the drawdown. I personally slow down my dollar-cost averaging pace, preferring to miss out on some opportunities rather than adding at the hottest emotional moments.

Recently, the testnet incentives and points system have once again raised people's hopes, and the group is asking every day, "Will the mainnet issue tokens?" I'm a bit tired of it... Anyway, once expectations get high, it's easiest to turn positions from "planned" into "itchy." My biggest fear isn't losing money, but wanting to do low-frequency trading and ending up being led by short-term stories, losing discipline. For now, I'll keep watching on-chain data and wait for the rain to stop.