Do you remember the Bitcoin forecasts for 2024? Honestly, it was crazy at the time. Everyone was talking about BTC skyrocketing to $150,000 before the end of the year, with ARK Invest predicting at least $124,000, and traders seeing targets between $130,000 and $140,000. PlanB with his Stock-to-Flow model even promised $500,000 to $1 million for 2025. Hal Finney and his 10 million seemed less crazy than before.

I looked at the data this week and... well, the Bitcoin forecasts for 2024 clearly did not unfold as expected. BTC is currently around $77,760. It's strange to see how analysts were convinced by the April 2024 halving, institutional adoption with Bitcoin ETFs, and this pro-crypto regulatory support. BlackRock and Fidelity had attracted tens of billions in inflows, everything seemed aligned.

What’s interesting is that the Bitcoin predictions for 2024 were based on real fundamentals: reduced supply, institutions entering, Trump and his pro-crypto vision. But markets are unpredictable. Volatility, corrections, macroeconomic events... all of that plays a role. Even the risks they mentioned back then, potential black swans, sudden regulatory changes, all probably mattered.

What’s crazy is that the Bitcoin forecasts for 2024 were based on solid logic, but reality took a different path. Halvings, institutional adoption, all of that remains relevant, but timing and catalysts are always the real question. Now we wait to see if the market will rebound or if we need to completely revise our view.