Рост китайского юаня продолжается, сможет ли он расти в 2026 году?

Expectations of yuan appreciation against the dollar in 2026 have become a hot topic in the market. Multiple international major banks have provided forecasts with considerable room for imagination—Goldman Sachs predicts the dollar-to-yuan rate will fall from 6.90 in mid-year to 6.85 by year-end, while Bank of America’s outlook is more aggressive, even seeing the possibility of 6.80. What do these numbers reflect? Can they really be achieved?

The story behind the current exchange rate breakthrough of psychological levels

Yuan appreciation is not a recent phenomenon. Since September 2024, this wave of appreciation began to build, and by December 25 it finally broke through the level of 7 that the market has long focused on—USD/CNH fell to 6.9965, reaching a 9-month low; USD/CNY fell to 7.0051, marking the strongest performance since May 2023.

Three forces have been driving this appreciation wave. First, the US dollar itself has weakened. The dollar index has fallen more than 10% year-to-date, and over 1% in the past month, which stands out particularly in the context of Fed rate cuts and global de-dollarization. Second, China’s central bank has adopted an active guidance approach, continuously raising the yuan’s midpoint exchange rate throughout the year, signaling support for yuan appreciation. The third factor is the year-end seasonal characteristic—China’s trade surplus in 2025 is substantial, and as year-end approaches, enterprises are rushing to settle foreign exchange, which has provided technical support for yuan appreciation on the technical side.

Why this appreciation is worth attention

The evaluation by Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, is thought-provoking: “Dollar weakness and seasonal foreign exchange conversions by exporters have driven yuan strength. Continued yuan appreciation will help enhance the attractiveness of China’s capital markets to foreign investors.” This is not merely a technical change, but may reshape capital flow patterns.

It is worth noting that the central bank has exercised restraint in monetary policy—it did not cut rates further throughout the year, and tight liquidity around the holidays also provided support for the yuan from another angle. Such a phenomenon of multiple factors resonating is not common.

How much room for appreciation does the yuan have in 2026

From a trade-weighted and economic fundamentals perspective, many analysts believe the yuan still has room to appreciate given undervaluation. Goldman Sachs’ judgment is most straightforward: the yuan is undervalued by 25% relative to economic fundamentals. Following this logic, the rationality of appreciation exists.

ANZ’s senior strategist Xing Zhaopeng provided a relatively conservative forecast, believing that the dollar-to-yuan rate may fluctuate in the 6.95-7.00 range in the first half of 2026. Bank of America, on the other hand, is more optimistic about the yuan, predicting that easing US-China tensions will improve export prospects, and the scale of dollar sales by exporters in 2026 will expand further, which may ultimately drive the dollar-to-yuan rate to 6.80 by year-end.

How investors should view this

Of course, while these forecasts are data-supported, exchange rate movements involve multiple variables, including international political situations, trade policy changes, and shifts in global capital flows. For investors, the key is understanding the logic behind this: yuan appreciation reflects not only the relative stability of China’s economic fundamentals, but also implies considerations about relative performance of other currencies like the Australian dollar—in an environment of divergent global monetary policies, the appreciation-depreciation relationship between different currencies is being reshaped.

Whether the yuan continues to appreciate in 2026 depends on whether the dollar continues to weaken, the policy direction of China’s central bank, and how global trade patterns evolve.