FancyResearchLab

As the market shifts its focus to the future direction of the Federal Reserve, the latest data from CME has sounded an alarm. According to the FedWatch tool, as of December 15, traders estimate only a 24.4% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by January 28, 2026, with a 75.6% probability of holding rates steady. This data reflects that, despite lingering long-term easing expectations, the market does not strongly anticipate a recent policy shift. This cooling of policy expectations is profoundly impacting the overall rhythm of the precious metals market.
Geopolitical Peace Signals and the Diminishing Need for Risk Hedging
The international gold price on December 15 fully demonstrated this shift. Gold futures, which rose by 1% in the early trading session, ultimately closed with a slight increase of only 0.2%. COMEX February gold futures settled at $4,335.2 per ounce, with the gain shrinking nearly fivefold. Spot gold also only reported at $per ounce.

In September 2024, the Federal Reserve begins a cycle of interest rate cuts, a decision that affects global market nerves. Simply put, lowering interest rates means a decrease in the attractiveness of the US dollar, causing capital to flow into risk assets, and the US dollar faces significant depreciation pressure. According to the latest dot plot forecast, the Fed aims to reduce the US dollar interest rate to around 3% by 2026.
For investors, this presents both opportunities and challenges. As the world's primary settlement currency, every move of the US dollar influences foreign trade settlements, government foreign exchange reserves, and subsequently impacts global markets. So, during this rate-cutting wave, will the US dollar really plummet? How should one position for the future?
US Dollar Exchange Rate: The Key Variable Determining Your Investment Returns
The US dollar exchange rate essentially reflects the "exchange ratio" between the US dollar and other currencies. For example, EUR/USD = 1.04 means that 1 US dollar can be exchanged for 0.96 euros, or 1.04 US dollars can be exchanged for 1 euro.

Bitcoin's trajectory since October 2025 tells a cautionary tale about market sentiment swings. After reaching approximately $126,000 last fall, the asset retreated sharply—currently trading near $92,180 with a 27% pullback from its peak. This isn't mere volatility. Rather, it reflects deeper

Recently, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated due to strong demand for foreign exchange settlement and a weak US dollar. The central bank remains cautious about the RMB's appreciation and maintains a steady upward pace. Meanwhile, precious metal prices have hit new highs, and expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are increasing. The Bank of Japan continues to adopt a hawkish stance and has announced a high budget. The global semiconductor industry is expected to continue growing, with NVIDIA's collaboration with startup Groq intensifying competition.

Entering 2026, Wall Street's outlook on the euro's trajectory is markedly divided. JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America are bullish, believing the euro could benefit from the narrowing of the US-Europe interest rate differential; while Citigroup and Standard Chartered are bearish, focusing on Germany's fiscal stimulus and uncertainties in the US economy. The market split reflects differing expectations for the global economic landscape, ultimately impacting the euro's outlook.

Yesterday (December 18), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which became the market focus. The year-over-year increase was only 2.7%, the slowest growth since early 2021, well below economists' expected 3.1% rise. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, was only 2.6%, falling short of the 3% forecast. The number of initial unemployment claims also declined to 224,000, slightly below the expected 225,000.
Inflation data retreat sparks market reflection
The CPI release appeared quite abrupt. Several economists pointed out that housing prices, one of the largest components of the CPI, remained essentially flat over two months, raising questions about the overall data's authenticity. Capital Economics economist Paul Ashworth stated that while the data may indeed reflect a slowdown in inflationary pressures, such a sudden stagnation, especially in rent

The NT dollar to Japanese Yen has reached a level of 4.85. More and more people want to travel abroad or hedge against NT dollar depreciation by doing currency exchange. But do you know? Exchanging 50,000 NT dollars through the wrong channel could cost you an extra 1,500 to 2,000 yuan—equivalent to eating a dozen more bowls of ramen in Japan.
Calculate the costs first, then decide how to exchange
Many think that exchanging Yen means lining up at the bank, but in reality, just the difference in exchange rates can cause significant losses. Based on the latest rates from various banks as of December 10, 2025, we’ve calculated the true cost of currency exchange for you.
The real expenses of 4 common currency exchange channels
Counter cash exchange: the simplest but most expensive
Taking NT dollars directly to a bank or airport counter to exchange for Yen cash is the most traditional method. The problem is that banks use the "cash selling rate," which is about 1-2% worse than the market spot rate. For example, Taiwan Bank’s cash selling rate is approximately 0.2060 NT dollars

Avalanche (AVAX) has delivered an impressive technical breakout, punching through a pivotal multi-week resistance line with an 8% surge that's now holding above the $14.00 psychological level. The token is sitting at $14.46 as of latest data, up 2.55% over 24 hours. Two

December 19th, a "perfect storm" day for global markets. After the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, the USD/JPY exchange rate plummeted, triggering a series of chain reactions—from US stock futures and cryptocurrencies to precious metals—all markets experiencing intense volatility to illustrate the day's complexity.
Bank of Japan rate hike causes USD/JPY to fall into a dilemma
The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level in nearly 30 years. However, the hawkish signals expected by the market did not materialize—Governor Ueda Kazuo's comments on the next policy steps were vague, directly dampening expectations for yen appreciation.
The result was an unexpected reversal: the USD/JPY exchange rate rose by 1.05%, with the latest quote at 157.09. This seemingly contradictory trend reflects that market concerns about the Bank of Japan's policy outlook outweigh optimism, as investors withdraw funds from yen assets and shift to higher-yielding assets.

Last Week's Market Summary
In the past week (12/15-12/19), the US dollar index experienced a modest rally, rising by 0.33%, while non-US currencies showed mixed performance. The Japanese yen was under the most pressure, depreciating by 1.28% over the week. The euro declined by 0.23%, the Australian dollar fell by 0.65%, and the British pound slightly increased by 0.03%. Factors such as divergent central bank policies, economic data exceeding expectations, and technical breakthroughs contributed to increased market volatility.
The yen's depreciation neared a key psychological level, with frequent intervention signals
The USD/JPY exchange rate rose by 1.28% last week, mainly driven by the Bank of Japan's "dovish stance on rate hikes." Although the BOJ raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, Governor Ueda's comments were noticeably dovish, disappointing the market. More importantly, Japan's new cabinet approved a fiscal stimulus package totaling 18.3 trillion yen, which directly offset the tightening effect of the rate hike, putting further pressure on the yen.
Current market

In the QE era, inflation is not stopping, and many people are starting to think about how to make their wealth outpace rising prices. The question is, there are many ways to make quick money—some through promotions and raises at work, some by investing and turning a profit overnight, and others ending up with total losses. Where exactly does the difference lie?
Principal determines your difficulty in making money
To make quick money, you first need to recognize a reality: how much principal you have directly determines your operational space.
For those with less principal, achieving wealth growth in the short term is actually not difficult. Whether choosing leveraged investments or multi-channel part-time jobs, assets can grow rapidly, and the risks are relatively controllable—because the principal is small, even if you lose, there’s a chance to start over.
But if you have already accumulated a substantial principal, the situation is reversed. The gains from ordinary part-time jobs are relatively minimal. To significantly increase wealth in a short period, you must take on higher risks, and if you fail, the losses can be severe.

Engaging in forex trading is similar to stock investing; both require relying on reputable trading platforms to execute transactions. For forex traders, choosing a compliant, secure platform with a good trading experience is the first step to success. If a non-compliant or scam platform is mistakenly selected, not only could the invested funds be lost entirely, but personal privacy and financial security could also face serious threats.
How to evaluate a forex trading platform?
To determine whether a forex trading platform is trustworthy, traders should assess it from multiple dimensions:
1. Regulatory Compliance as the Primary Standard
Whether the platform has obtained regulatory authorization from top financial regulatory authorities is crucial. Globally recognized main financial regulatory licenses include the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), and others.
Obtaining these regulatory qualifications requires meeting strict requirements:
Minimum Capital Requirements: The trading platform must demonstrate that it has sufficient

On December 19th, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, bringing the benchmark rate to 0.75%, a new high since 1995. However, surprisingly, this hawkish move did not strengthen the yen; instead, the USD/JPY exchange rate rose in response, and the market's reaction was unexpected.
Unclear signals from the rate hike left the market disappointed
Governor Kazuo Ueda adopted a relatively cautious stance at the subsequent press conference. Although the central bank's statement indicated that it would continue to raise rates if economic and price outlooks met expectations, the governor did not provide a clear timeline for future rate hikes that the market was hoping for. Particularly regarding the definition of the neutral interest rate level (currently estimated to be in the range of 1.0% to 2.5%), he stated that it is difficult to determine in advance and plans to adjust when appropriate.
This ambiguous stance has led to differing interpretations among market participants regarding the central bank's future policy direction. Strategist Masahik

What is the difference between a limit order and a market order: how to distinguish these two types of trading orders?
When trading stocks or forex, the most common concepts encountered are market orders and limit orders. The fundamental difference between these two types of orders lies in the authority to determine the price.
A market order is executed at the final transaction price determined by the market. When you choose a market order, you do not need to manually input a specific price; the trading system will execute immediately at the current market quote. For example, if the current buy price of EUR/USD is 1.12365 and the sell price is 1.12345, placing a market buy order will execute at 1.12365.
However, there is a point to note—due to real-time market fluctuations, the final transaction price may differ from the quote seen when placing the order. This phenomenon is called "slippage."
A limit order is set by the trader to specify the transaction price. Simply put, a limit order means you set a maximum or minimum price, and the order will only be executed when the market price reaches or