# 加密市场开年反弹

As your strategic mentor, first of all, congratulations to the fans who are keeping up with Xiao Zhi's pace. You should have been well-fed during this period. Next, how to layout your strategy, please watch Xiao Zhi's notes carefully.
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#加密市场开年反弹 #ETH走势分析 $ETH ‌
Currently, ETH price is around 3230, at a very delicate "sentiment game point."
1. Deep logical analysis of ETH today (2026.01.06)
1. Structure and Dynamics
* Fake Breakout Risk: 3230-3250 is a key supply zone from previous periods. Although the current price touches this area, the RSI indicator on the 1-hour level shows a clear bearish divergence. This means the price is rising, but momentum is waning.
* Liquidation Map: A large number of short leverage liquidation points are concentrated around 3280. The market is very likely to launch a "final charge" upward to wipe out these shorts, then quickly fall back.
2. Macro Noise Filtering
* The market is digesting recent on-chain data outflows. Although long-term bullish, the short-term funding rate has overheated. This is usually a precursor to "longs killing longs."
2. Current price at 3230: Three No's Principle Audit
* No Against the Trend: The trend here is upward, but it has entered overbought territory. Never open a heavy long position here.
* No Holding the Position: If you open a long here, stop loss must be set at 3180. The space is too large, and the risk-reward ratio is poor.
* No Frequent Trading: If you didn't enter at 3170 just now, entering at 3230 now is a typical "emotional re-entry." Staying silent is the highest level of operation.
3. Today's Levels and Execution Strategies
We don't gamble on the market; we only wait for the market to fall into a trap.
Option A: Capture the "Pullback and Rebound" (Bullish Strategy)
* Logic: The market needs to drop to clear out leveraged longs chasing around 3200 before it can move freely.
* Observation Zone: 3150 - 3180.
* Trigger: When the price falls back to this area and shows a "stop decline signal" with decreasing volume on the 15-minute level.
* Stop Loss (Steel Red Line): 3110 (Break below invalidates the logic).
* Take Profit: 3350.
Option B: High-level Exhaustion "Fake Breakout" (Bearish Strategy)
* Logic: After the price breaks through 3280 to wipe out shorts, it quickly volume-drops and falls back below 3250.
* Trigger: When the price returns to 3230 - 3240, follow up.
* Stop Loss (Steel Red Line): 3285 (Never add against the trend, stop loss if breaking high).
* Take Profit: 3080.
Profit and loss are at your own risk; please refer to your own judgment.

Currently leaning towards shorting, summarized with two plans and analysis logic.
Plan 1: High-level interception (left-side trading - highest efficiency, minimal stop loss)
• Entry point: Wait for the price to surge again to the $3,260 - $3,275 range (near previous high and upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands).
• Stop loss: $3,290.
• Reason: If it breaks through $3,290, it indicates that the upward space on the daily chart is open, and short positions must be exited immediately to stop loss.
• First target: $3,180 (middle band of the 1-hour Bollinger Bands).
• Second target: $3,120 (lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands).
Plan 2: Break confirmation (right-side trading - most stable)
• Entry point: Wait for the 15-minute K-line to break below and close under $3,210 (i.e., break short-term support).
• Stop loss: $3,240 (hold if it rebounds but does not break).
• Target: $3,130 - $3,150 area.
Shorting taboos (must pay attention)
1. Strictly prohibit "holding through": The current major trend is upward; shorting is only to eat the retracement. If the price forcibly breaks through $3,300, it indicates the market is entering an accelerated upward phase, and absolutely no holding of short positions.
2. Step-by-step profit-taking: Since it is against the trend, when the price falls to a support level (such as $3,180), reduce positions or move the stop loss to the entry point to ensure principal safety.
3. Observe volume: If the price hovers around $3,260 but does not decline, and trading volume shrinks, this often signals a buildup for another rally. At this time, short positions should be withdrawn.
Order placement logic analysis:
1. Market trend in-depth analysis
Ethereum is currently in a strong upward trend but faces short-term overbought correction pressure:
1. Daily level: The price is in a large rebound channel, currently touching the upper band of Bollinger Bands (around 3281). The J value in the KDJ indicator has already broken 100 (101.95), indicating a serious overbought state. This means that although the trend is bullish, chasing high at the current price has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio.
2. 4-hour level: Typical bullish arrangement. The price runs along the upper Bollinger Band, with MACD showing a golden cross with increasing volume. The key point is the recent high at 3,263.78; if it cannot break through with volume, it may form a short-term "double top" or high-level consolidation.
3. 1-hour/15-minute levels: Volatility begins to converge, and Bollinger Bands are flattening. This is often a sign of a trend reversal. On the 1-hour chart, MACD shows shrinking red bars, indicating weakening short-term upward momentum.
Strong resistance level: 3264-3300, previous high pressure + integer level + daily Bollinger upper band
First support level: 3180-3200, middle bands of 1-hour and 4-hour Bollinger Bands, with psychological support
Strong support level: 3120-3130, lower band of 4-hour Bollinger Bands ➕15-minute previous low
1. Do not chase highs: Currently, KDJ is at a high level; the current price of 3,223 is very close to the upper resistance. Opening a position now results in a risk-reward ratio less than 1:1, which does not meet high-efficiency principles.
2. Watch for volume increase: If the price breaks through 3,264 with volume, consider entering on a pullback rather than chasing at the moment of breakout.
Supporting shorting logic (why consider short now?)
1. Clear resistance: 3,263.78 is a short-term clear high point. If the price attempts to break this level again and fails, it will form a "double top" structure.
2. Serious overbought: The J value in the daily KDJ exceeds 100, indicating market overheating, and a technical correction may occur at any time to fix excessive divergence.
3. Momentum weakening: On the 15-minute and 1-hour charts, MACD red bars are shrinking, indicating the bullish momentum is weakening.
#策略 #加密市场开年反弹 #我的2026第一条帖 #今日你看涨还是看跌？ #Gate广场 $ETH