Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the Guotai (561360) Oil ETF surged over 2.6%, with the market focusing on the impact of rising oil price midpoints.

Geopolitical conflicts continue, and on April 1, the oil ETF Guotai (561360) surged by over 2.6%, as the market focused on the impact of a rising oil price center.

CITIC Securities pointed out that, due to geopolitical impacts and the Strait’s continued ongoing blockade, the oil price center may rise to some extent, and it will be maintained at a high level. With high oil prices, the energy arbitrage opportunities for coal-to-chemicals, natural gas-to-chemicals, and chlor-alkali will expand significantly. In the agrochemical chain, as domestic and overseas cultivated areas continue to increase, demand on the fertilizer side will maintain steady growth; meanwhile, the rising penetration rate of genetically modified crops supports an upward trend in long-term pesticide demand. The upward shift of the oil price center also supports crop prices. After the CAC Agricultural Exhibition, most pesticide products saw a wave of broad-based price increases; at present, many products have entered a rationing/low-supply stance, and the price increase in this round may exceed expectations. In addition, under geopolitical shocks, overseas competitiveness further declines, and China Chemical builds global pricing. Sub-sectors such as methionine and vitamins benefit. Some sub-industry capital expenditure peak periods have already passed, and the industry structure has been significantly optimized.

The Guotai oil ETF (561360) tracks the Oil & Gas Industry Index (H30198). This index covers companies in fields such as oil and natural gas exploration, production, processing, and related services. Its constituent stocks mainly consist of representative enterprises in the energy industry, to reflect the overall performance of securities of listed companies related to the oil and gas industry. Industry allocation is concentrated in upstream resource development and midstream refining and chemical processing, with a style that leans toward value and cyclical characteristics.

Risk warning: Mentioning individual stocks is only for industry event analysis and does not constitute any recommendation or investment advice regarding any individual stock. Any short-term rise or fall in the index is for reference only and does not represent any commitment or guarantee of the fund’s future performance. The views may be adjusted as market conditions change, and do not constitute investment advice or commitments. Different funds have different risk and return characteristics. Investors are advised to carefully read the fund legal documents, fully understand product features, risk levels, and the principles of profit distribution, choose products that match their own risk tolerance, and invest cautiously. For fund fee rates, please refer to the legal documents.

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