#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Goldman Sachs issues a major warning! If the Strait of Hormuz closes again for another month, Brent crude will break $100 a barrel! The global economy is at risk.

A ceasefire is merely a illusion; the strait is locked again, and oil prices are soaring.
Just now, Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs released its latest research report, issuing the most severe warning: if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, the average price of Brent crude in 2026 will directly surpass $100 per barrel! This is not alarmist talk, but based on the harshest current geopolitical reality—this "world oil valve" is firmly choking the throat of the global economy.

1. Reality: The ceasefire is a falsehood, the strait is "dead"
On April 8, the US and Iran briefly paused fire, and the market once celebrated, with Brent crude plunging 14% in a single day, falling below $90.
But peace lasted only a few hours. Israel bombed Lebanon, Iran believed the agreement was torn up, and the Strait of Hormuz was fully closed again.
Brutal data: - 25% of global shipping crude oil, 20 million barrels per day, now pass through - In the past 24 hours, no oil tankers have passed through the strait - Brent spot prices once surged to $124 per barrel, futures rebounded to a high of $98

2. Goldman Sachs’s three major scenarios: where will oil prices go?
Goldman Sachs has set three scripts, each affecting the global nerves:
1. Baseline scenario (optimistic): The strait gradually recovers starting this weekend, normalizing within a month → Q3: $82/barrel, Q4: $80/barrel
2. Adverse scenario (Goldman’s key warning): Another month of closure → second half of the year average > $100/barrel, full-year average surpassing $100
3. Extreme scenario (nightmare): Long-term blockade + capacity damage → Q3: $120/barrel, Q4: $115/barrel
Goldman Sachs bluntly states: current oil price risks are significantly skewed upward!

3. Why is this so deadly? Three irreplaceable reasons
1. Supply gap cannot be filled: 10–16 million barrels of crude oil "disappear" daily due to the strait closure. Saudi Arabia and UAE pipelines can only divert about 10 million barrels per day, which is a drop in the bucket.
2. Inventory critical point reached: over 25 days of closure, Middle Eastern oil reserves will be exhausted, forcing large-scale production cuts. Once cuts happen, the global supply chain will be directly "bleeding."
3. Asia’s most affected: China, Japan, South Korea, India—over 80% of their oil imports rely on this route. Oil prices breaking $100 will cause inflation, freight, and prices to rise across the board.

4. Chain reaction: the global economy will be dragged into the abyss
1. Inflation returns: oil prices breaking $100 will significantly increase global inflation pressure, forcing central banks to delay interest rate cuts.
2. Growth slashed: Goldman Sachs estimates that soaring oil prices will reduce global GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points, greatly increasing recession risks.
3. Living costs surge: gasoline, diesel, chemicals, logistics, food... all prices will rise. From gas stations to supermarkets, everyone will pay the price for geopolitical conflict.

5. Conclusion: $100 oil is not a question of if, but when
Every closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a timed bomb detonating the global economy. Goldman Sachs’s warning is the ticking countdown.
Crude oil at $100 per barrel is on its way. Are you ready?