Funds rush to secure "bond market anchor points," with the Guotai 10-year government bond ETF (511260) experiencing three consecutive days of net inflows close to 700 million yuan, highlighting the value of holding government bond core positions.

Funds scramble to “anchor the bond market,” from a liquidity perspective, the Guotai (511260) 10-year Treasury ETF has experienced net inflows of nearly 700 million yuan for three consecutive days, highlighting the value of bottom-positioning in government bonds.

Huabao Securities points out that, currently, the property market’s investment attributes are weakening, coupled with the continuation of loose monetary policy, prompting funds to seek alternatives across different assets. Over the past year, the stock-bond tug-of-war effect has become increasingly evident. The future trend of the bond market mainly depends on the stock market’s performance. It is expected that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate within the 1.80% to 1.85% range. On one hand, influenced by the Middle East conflict, safe-haven funds are flowing back into the bond market seeking returns; market focus is shifting from concerns over global inflation to worries about economic slowdown. On the other hand, March PMI data exceeded market expectations, and the imported inflation concerns caused by the US-Iran conflict have not yet dissipated, resulting in the bond market showing a “top and bottom” range fluctuation pattern. Currently, credit spreads have compressed to historic lows, making relative value of interest rate bonds less attractive, but coupon strategies exhibit less volatility, making them still suitable as core holdings.

The Guotai (511260) 10-year Treasury ETF tracks the SSE 10-Year Treasury Bond Index, selecting bonds with remaining maturities of 7 to 10 years listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange as samples, maintaining a fixed duration. Historically, since its inception, the Guotai 10-year Treasury ETF has repeatedly reached new highs in net asset value, with steady performance over time. According to the fund’s periodic reports, as of the end of 2025, the one-year return was 0.4%, the three-year return was 14.23%, the five-year return was 23.19%, and since inception, the cumulative return has been 36.31%.

It is worth noting that since its establishment, the Guotai 10-year Treasury ETF has experienced 8 full calendar years from 2018 to 2025, all of which yielded positive returns each year, making it a potentially reliable asset allocation tool to navigate bull and bear cycles.

Risk warning: Data sourced from fund periodic reports and Wind; related performance verified by custodial banks. Past performance does not indicate future results. The Guotai 10-year Treasury ETF was established on August 4, 2017. From 2017 to 2025, the net value growth rates/performance benchmarks are: -1.55% / -1.01%; 7.6% / 8.47%; 2.49% / 4.81%; 1.92% / 2.09%; 5.19% / 5.78%; 2.52% / 2.87%; 4.37% / 4.83%; 9.02% / 8.09%; 0.40% / -1.34%. Mentioned individual stocks are only for industry event analysis and do not constitute any stock recommendation or investment advice. Short-term index fluctuations are for reference only and do not predict future performance, nor do they constitute a promise or guarantee of fund performance. Views may be adjusted according to market conditions and do not constitute investment advice or commitments. Different funds have varying risk-return characteristics; investors are advised to carefully read the fund’s legal documents, fully understand product features, risk levels, and distribution principles, and choose products that match their risk tolerance. Please consult legal documents for fund fee rates.

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