Everbright Futures 0407 Gold Review: Non-farm payrolls outperform expectations, gold price trend remains under pressure

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On April 6, COMEX gold rose first and then fell during trading, closing at $4,676.1 per ounce, down 0.08%. Domestic SHFE gold was closed for the Qingming Festival.

The U.S. March non-farm employment report released on Friday comprehensively beat expectations. New jobs added were 178,000, the highest since December 2024. The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%, and the quarter-over-quarter growth rate in average hourly earnings slowed from 0.4% to 0.2%. In addition, the March ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7, a new high since August 2022. However, the price index climbed to a nearly four-year high, reflecting both manufacturing expansion and the coexistence of imported inflation pressures. Fed Chair Powell said the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma—there are downside risks to employment, but significant upward pressure on inflation. Therefore, the Fed is inclined to keep interest rates unchanged and maintain a wait-and-see stance. The strengthening U.S. dollar suppressed a rebound in gold prices.

On the geopolitical front, the situation in the Middle East remains tense. The Strait of Hormuz is still largely closed. The looming ultimatum from Trump has brought market anxiety to the forefront, and oil prices have remained at high levels. Market concerns about inflation under elevated oil prices and fears of liquidity amid tightening central-bank policies are the ultimate reflection of the geopolitical trade. It is expected to remain for some time. Strategically, the near-term pattern of pressure on gold prices is unlikely to change. Lower expectations for gold in the first half of the year and adopt a cautious approach of “defense first, and strategically planning on pullbacks.”

Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute

Written by: Shi Yueming

Practitioner Qualification: F03097365

Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0017563

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