What if Donald Trump decided to ban oil exports?

GateUser-9ad11037

2026-03-20 21:31:17

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DONALD TRUMP is running out of options to cushion the energy shock from the Iran war. The American president has tried to press allies into assembling naval escorts, overseen the largest-ever release of strategic oil stocks and toyed with selling oil futures to drive prices down. None of it is working: the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, is above $110 a barrel. That has pushed average petrol prices to nearly $4 a gallon in America, from $2.90 on February 27th.

There is one thing Mr Trump has yet to try: suspending oil exports. Insiders say this is not yet on the table. But Brent could hit $120 by the end of March, buoying petrol towards $4.50 a gallon—months before the midterm elections. So the temptation to keep supplies at home will only grow. What happens if the world’s third-largest oil exporter stops exporting depends on what any restrictions would cover: crude, refined products or both.

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