Domestic oil price adjustment is imminent, is the largest increase since 2008 coming?

Many major commodity monitoring agencies predict that the current round of retail refined oil price increases is inevitable, and the increase may reach a new high, marking the fifth consecutive rise this year.

Due to ongoing supply tensions caused by Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts, international oil prices have recently remained volatile at high levels. At 24:00 on March 23, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open again. Against this backdrop, multiple commodity monitoring agencies forecast that this round of retail price increases is certain, with the potential for the largest increase of the year, marking the fifth consecutive rise.

Since the pricing cycle from 24:00 on March 9 to 24:00 on March 23, the international crude oil market has been affected by continued disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the risk of supply interruptions. Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on March 11 that member countries had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves—its largest single release since its establishment—markets believe this move is unlikely to offset the significant supply gap caused by geopolitical conflicts. As a result, international oil prices have not fallen but continued to rise, remaining high.

As a result, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has continued to increase within positive territory. As of March 16 (the fifth working day of this pricing cycle), according to calculations by Jinjianchuang, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was $94.23 per barrel, with a change rate of 25.75%. Correspondingly, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices should increase by 1,420 yuan per ton. Agencies such as Zhuochuang Information also predict that the increase will generally exceed 1,300 yuan per ton.

Converted to per-liter prices, agencies generally forecast that this round of oil price increases will be between 1.1 and 1.3 yuan per liter. Based on these predicted increases, filling a 50L tank with 92-octane gasoline before the price hike could save drivers about 55 to 65 yuan in travel costs, allowing them to refuel earlier to avoid peak prices.

This price adjustment will take effect at 24:00 on March 23 and may set a new record for the largest single increase since the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism was market-oriented in 2008.

Text | Reporter Qu Peiran

Produced by | China Energy News (cnenergy)

Editor | Zhao Fangting