Iran's "oil lifeline" remains unaffected by the conflict. What would be the consequences if it were to be seized?

Key Highlights

• Harek Island is a small landmass in northern Persian Gulf, widely regarded as one of Iran’s most sensitive economic targets.
• However, during nearly two weeks of US-Israel-led attacks on Iran, the island has remained untouched.
• Analysts say any attempt to attack or seize Iran’s strategic oil hub would be highly risky.

On March 12, 2017, a panoramic view of Iran’s Harek Island oil terminal. Located in the Persian Gulf, 25 km from Iran’s coast and 483 km northwest of the Strait of Hormuz, this terminal is Iran’s gateway to global markets and the world’s largest open oil terminal, handling about 95% of Iran’s crude oil exports.

From a geopolitical and economic perspective, attempting to seize Harek Island — often called Iran’s “oil lifeline” — would be considered an extremely high-risk move.

This coral island, about 5 miles long, is situated in the northern waters of the Persian Gulf, approximately 15 miles from Iran’s mainland coast. Throughout nearly two weeks of US-Israel-led airstrikes on Iran, the island has remained safe and undamaged.

According to Axios on March 7, the Trump administration has discussed plans to seize the island, citing four anonymous sources familiar with the discussions.

Previously, White House officials indicated that after an “epic rage operation,” oil prices would likely plummet; White House spokesperson Caroline Livit stated that the president was “wisely” keeping all options open.

Harek Island has become a global focus because it is considered one of Iran’s most sensitive economic targets. The terminal accounts for about 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, with a daily loading capacity of approximately 7 million barrels.

Analysts point out that any attack or seizure of the island would require ground forces, which the US appears reluctant to deploy. Additionally, such an attack could cause oil prices, already soaring, to continue rising.

Overview of Harek Island

Iran’s Harek Island is a small landmass in northern Persian Gulf, with critical strategic importance, located about 15 miles from Iran’s coast.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin previously refused to rule out deploying ground troops to Iran but stated that the US would not get bogged down in a land war.

Francis Galgano, an associate professor at Villanova University in Pennsylvania and an expert in military geography and environmental security, said that Harek Island’s location is crucial because it is in deep water, facilitating supertankers to dock.

“From a military perspective… if the goal is to quickly win the war, Harek Island should be destroyed or seized immediately,” Galgano told CNBC via email, as this would maximize pressure on Tehran.

However, he also noted that capturing this small island would not be easy. “It would require a large ground force in the region… I estimate about 5,000 troops would be needed to take and hold the island.”

He added, “All of this would certainly impact the global oil market, but the market is already under shock.”

Since the US and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran on February 28, oil prices have been highly volatile. Iran has retaliated by attacking ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with several incidents occurring recently.

This narrow waterway is a critical maritime route connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas are transported.

On Friday, Brent crude futures for May delivery fell 1%, to $99.45 per barrel; WTI crude futures for April delivery dropped 2%, to $93.81 per barrel.

JPMorgan analysts said that if Harek Island were incapacitated, Iran’s oil reserves would lose their buffer, and with no viable alternative export routes, this could “rapidly trigger upstream shutdowns at major oil fields in southwestern Iran.”

In their Sunday report, they stated: “Iran’s current crude oil production is nearly 3.3 million barrels per day, with exports of about 1.5 million barrels. If this hub remains shut down, nearly half of the country’s production could be at risk, and the previously estimated 20-day buffer period would be completely eliminated from day one.”

Security Control

Richard Goldberg, senior advisor at the non-profit Defense Democracy Foundation, which takes a hardline stance against Iran, said that amid market turmoil and the possibility of regime change, he understands why the US is reluctant to take any actions that could destroy Iran’s oil production.

“Once we regain control of the Strait of Hormuz’s security and have a clearer assessment of whether the Iranian regime can continue to hold power, this attitude could change rapidly,” Goldberg told CNBC via email.

“At that point, we would definitely need to consider incapacitating the export terminal or otherwise indefinitely cutting off Iran’s regime’s financial lifeline,” he added.

On Friday, President Trump hinted that the Iran conflict would not end soon, reportedly stating that the US is “well-equipped and has plenty of time” to continue operations.

Recently, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, also took a hard stance, insisting that the Strait of Hormuz must be closed as a “tool of pressure against enemies.”

Alex Prichas, senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, said that Iran’s vast territory and mountainous terrain would require hundreds of thousands of troops if the US deployed conventional ground forces in the region.

“Any use of ground forces would likely be limited to special operations units performing specific missions,” Prichas said in a report on Wednesday, which did not specifically mention Harek Island.