Did I gain and lose 4000 points again? Has the bull left?

4000 Points Gained and Lost Again, Is the Bull Market Over?

[Taogu Ba]

**

–Life requires effort, but don’t overexert in the stock market. The more persistent, the more you might lose!

1. Doing ultra-short trades, must watch the bidding.
   On March 20th at 09:25, limit-up in bidding:

Interpretation:

1. 6 stocks hit limit-up during bidding (5 with sealed orders), 0 limit-down; yesterday, 4 stocks hit limit-up (all with sealed orders), 0 limit-down. The largest sealed order was 2.8 billion, yesterday’s was 1.7 billion. The number of limit-up stocks slightly increased, with Dajia’s order adding 1 billion maintaining the top volume, and no limit-down stocks, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment compared to yesterday.

2. 4-5 level stocks, 1 stock
   l Shenhua Development A (Guangdong + San Ge), sealed order remains at 600 million, showing signs of decreased rigidity, continuing to push expectations for Huadian, but caution is needed whether the opening will break the limit. Huadian’s surge is a preemptive move rather than a follow-up, as the current environment suggests the small cycle has peaked at 5 limit-ups.

3. 2-3 level stocks, 1 stock
   l Dashengda (Zhejiang + GPU chips), sealed order of 2.8 billion plus 1 billion, mainly to strengthen bidding intensity and push expectations for recovery. Shao Neng, the strongest in the same tier, can benefit from volume, so leveraging Shao Neng’s explosive bidding volume remains promising. Other weaker stocks like Guangdong Electric Power A and Meili Cloud are more about internal competition and profit-taking, with a surge serving as a trigger point.

4. 1-2 level stocks, 1 stock
   l Mingpu Magnetic (Guangdong + optical communication), Reiskangda’s bid is a straight line + Yizhongtian’s large gap-up, stimulating the bid for the tier. This looks weak overall; Mingpu’s large order is a straight line, with Reiskangda following. The logical flaw suggests a sudden move, indicating non-overnight plans. Mingpu’s historical volatility of 900 million poses a risk of breaking the limit, so close monitoring of sealed orders is necessary.

5. First limit-up stocks, 3 stocks
   l Reiskangda (Beijing + optical communication), sealed order of 900 million, strengthened only after Yizhongtian’s gap-up. It’s a typical arbitrage play, with obvious logical dislocation.

l Hengtian Hailong (Shandong + restructured aerospace engine), not a chemical fiber stock today. The reason for the limit-up is the acquisition of aerospace engines, but the sealed order is only 500 million compared to Dashengda’s 2.8 billion, making it unlikely to continue. Previously, chemical fiber limit-ups also lacked thematic support, so this stock has limited arbitrage potential.

l Shenzhou Information (Guangdong + AI applications), weak one-word limit-up triggered by news, winning a financial service project for rural banks. Whether it indicates AI application depends on whether it hits the limit instantly and is sealed with large orders at open. With a market cap close to 20 billion, any transaction over 1.5 billion is significant; otherwise, it’s not reliable.

6. 0 limit-down stocks:
   Interpretation: Crude oil futures retreated, US stocks opened lower but recovered, narrowing the decline. Yesterday, the market fell below 4000+5000 stocks, but expectations for recovery were reinforced like drought relief.

2. Closing Data:

1. The three major indices: 2 green, 1 red. Shanghai Composite down -1.24% to 3957.05, Shenzhen down -0.25%, ChiNext up 1.30%. Turnover was 23.028 billion, compared to yesterday’s 17.55 billion, net inflow -89.23 billion. The number of advancing vs declining stocks was 662:4786 (yesterday 505:4955), and the limit-up to limit-down ratio was 28:13 (yesterday 28:5).

Interpretation:
The narrowing of declines after a low open indicates tech stocks are recovering. The weighted ChiNext index, led by Yizhongtian, rose sharply, but the market was highly polarized. Heavyweights continued to decline, while the ChiNext rose over 3%. The Shanghai index barely turned red, and nearly 4,000 stocks declined. In the afternoon, as funds accelerated outflow, the ChiNext’s gains retreated to about 1%, and the Shanghai index again accelerated downward, breaking below 4,000 points. The market again had nearly 4,800 stocks waiting to rise, with only 28 stocks hitting limit-up for two consecutive days, maintaining an extremely low level. Limit-down stocks increased to 13, indicating intensified negative feedback. Despite the rise to 5 limit-ups, overall sentiment remains divided. Closing at -4944 points.

2. Top 10 Trading Data: Market’s Strongest Forces Must Be Watched!

Interpretation:

1. The top 10 by trading volume ratio is 3:7, normal. Non-mainboard weights dominate the top 10. Computing hardware CPO holds 5 seats, new energy 2, with metals, domestic GPU, and large finance each occupying 1 seat. Tech remains dominant.
2. Bidding rise/fall ratio is 8:2, indicating recovery. Tianfu Communication had the highest increase, representing tech’s resilience; the biggest decline was Oriental Fortune, continuing the weak trend.
3. Closing rise/fall ratio is 6:4, showing market divergence. XinYiSheng had the highest gain, with CPO hitting new highs against the trend; the biggest decline was Oriental Fortune, confirming the weak index outlook.
4. Total market turnover compared to yesterday’s 17.55 billion, with the top 10’s turnover increasing by 4.55 billion, inconsistent with overall market volume. The top 10 stocks’ average gain was 1.64%. Core weights opened high and declined, with the top 100 stocks’ gain/loss ratio at 44:56, stronger than the overall market, indicating that market weights are still resilient in weak environments.

3. Limit-up and Limit-down Stocks Show Extreme Profit and Loss Effects, Must Watch!

Limit-down:

Interpretation: 13 stocks hit limit-down, no stocks continue to fall, no 20cm limit-down, extreme negative feedback has receded to a low tide. Nearly half are related to chemicals, including Tongtong, Sanfang, Shunhao, Jinniu, Hongbaoli, Jinjingda, Luhua, etc., popular short-term. This suggests increased short-term divergence, but sealed orders are weak, implying no continued momentum expected the next day. Overall divergence has increased but remains under control, indicating a true low tide has not yet arrived.

Limit-up:

Interpretation: The index remains weak, with no new short-term themes. Power sector speculation is retreating, with energy substitution driven by high positions. High-level chips are loosening, with volume driven by news and expectations of energy storage replacement.

Continuous limit-up analysis:
5-limit-up stocks:
Shenhua Development A (Guangdong + San Ge + 1.23 billion), maintains three sealed orders during the day, no shift in node, supporting Huadian’s upgrade. However, volume increased, indicating potential for a sharp decline next trading day.
Huadian Liaoning (Northeast + power + 2.416 billion), a sibling of Huadian Energy, shows exhaustion after high volume, signaling a possible retreat in the small cycle. Whether it continues depends on weekend news and Monday’s low-level continuation.
3-limit-up stocks:
Shao Neng Co. (Guangdong + power + 1.019 billion), weak initial limit-up with quick resistance, volume of 1.1 billion, helping Huadian reach 5 limit-ups, but a showdown is expected next day.
Dashengda (Zhejiang + GPU chips + 620 million), sealed order of 2.8 billion, expected to replace the top limit-up on Monday.

2-limit-up stocks:
Dongfang Xinneng (Beijing + power + 2.629 billion), maintains the power tier, supporting Huadian’s second brother, low probability of divergence.
Huadian Energy (Northeast + power + 2.963 billion), better not to seal today; both Huadian stocks are exhausted, with a high likelihood of a bloodbath on Monday unless driven by news and low-level continuation.
National New Energy (Shanxi + natural gas + 692 million), despite the name, is actually about natural gas, a hidden player in power, likely to outperform in power sector competition, needing weekend news to boost.

C8 Supermarket:
Affected by compliance, supermarkets are temporarily closed for a few days.

03/23 Forward Outlook: Specific weekly strategy updates and high mode tracking will be in the new forecast management update. Comments will be summarized after weekend news and public opinion fermentation. Based on current market conditions, solar storage is expected to replace power in high-low switching. The external environment remains unstable, with the index in a bearish phase. The market cannot break out of a strong profit-making cycle, but a few speculative stocks may emerge. Emphasize: if the environment is poor, reduce positions actively, try small positions for risk, and wait for better conditions to go long. Hard trading without patience often leads to poor results…

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