"Jointly Discussing New Opportunities at the Start of the "15th Five-Year Plan" – CITIC Securities Spring Strategy Conference Takes the Pulse of Capital Market's New Ecosystem

CNR Beijing, March 20 (Reporter Fan Rui) — The CITIC Securities 2026 Spring Capital Market Forum was held in Beijing from March 19 to 20. The conference provided a comprehensive outlook on the global macro landscape and investment strategies under new circumstances, delving into hot topics such as the policies from the Two Sessions, the 14th Five-Year Plan and reforms, asset allocation, geopolitical conflicts, and commodity markets. Experts attending the event stated that the A-share market is at a critical turning point from stockholder competition to incremental allocation, and a more resilient, stable new ecosystem for the capital market has already taken shape.

The A-share Market Is at a Critical Turning Point Toward Incremental Allocation

On the first day’s main forum on March 19, Zhu Yexin, a member of the CITIC Securities Party Committee, Executive Member of the Management Committee, and Head of the Research Department, said in his speech that 2026 is a year of extraordinary historical significance. It marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan and is a key period for China to fully realize its socialist modernization goals by 2035. At this new starting point filled with opportunities and challenges, we need to uphold the resolve to innovate and reform, and respond to external uncertainties with high-quality development certainty, jointly exploring a new situation for China’s economy and capital markets.

Zhu Yexin pointed out that the outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes building a modern industrial system and consolidating the foundation of the real economy, with a focus on constructing a modern industrial system led by advanced manufacturing. Against this macro backdrop, new productive forces represented by artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, and biotechnology are moving from conceptual exploration to industrial implementation, rewriting the main growth lines of the economy and markets. More excitingly, China’s outbound investment and RMB internationalization are forming a strong strategic resonance, opening vast imagination space for the systemic revaluation of Chinese assets.

“The capital market ecosystem has been significantly optimized. Stabilizing the market and improving the ecosystem for long-term investment and financing have become inevitable requirements for high-quality development,” Zhu Yexin said. A market with better investor return protection is taking shape, with a more inclusive and adaptable multi-level capital market system. Regulators are deepening reforms of the ChiNext Board, optimizing refinancing mechanisms, and setting more inclusive listing standards to precisely support new industries, new business models, and technological innovation enterprises. In Zhu Yexin’s view, this solid underlying logic is reshaping Chinese assets’ global attractiveness. Driven by fundamental repair and the inflow of incremental funds, the A-share market is at a critical turning point from stockholder competition to incremental allocation, and a more resilient, stable new ecosystem for the capital market has already formed.

How Should A-shares Be Allocated in Spring 2026?

CITIC Securities’ Research Department recently released the 2026 Spring Investment Strategy. Qi Xiang, Chief A-share Strategist at CITIC Securities, believes that geopolitical turbulence coincides with the index reaching a critical threshold, making spring a period for rebuilding confidence and making decisive moves in the index. Under the background of rising global energy costs and weakening financial conditions, valuation and pricing power are the two most important factors. In terms of allocation, the focus should be on China’s advantageous manufacturing and re-estimating its pricing power.

Qi Xiang pointed out that the market currently faces three key issues: First, the Middle East geopolitical conflicts are gradually evolving into sustained and severe disruptions to global supply chains. After a 1.5-year bull market in the index, what can continue to push it higher? Second, global financial conditions are beginning to weaken; will market styles undergo significant changes? Third, AI-driven disruptive innovation and code expansion are accelerating, affecting economic structure and asset allocation directions. The answers to these questions will determine investors’ strategies.

From an index perspective, Qi Xiang believes valuation has limited room for further repair, and the rebound in corporate profit margins is crucial for the next phase of the A-share bull market. Disruptions in global supply chains once again provide an opportunity to test China’s manufacturing pricing power. From a style perspective, Middle East conflicts are expected to be a catalyst for style shifts this year. Under the background of rising global costs and weakening financial conditions, valuation and pricing power are the two most important factors. From an industry trend perspective, code expansion and physical scarcity are reflected in China as an increase in the pricing power of advantageous manufacturing industries. Accelerating disruptive innovation in AI and disruptions in global energy supply chains are reinforcing this trend. For allocation, Qi Xiang recommends steadfastly focusing on China’s advantageous manufacturing and re-estimating its pricing power (chemical, non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, new energy), with price increases remaining a core trading clue, while increasing exposure to undervalued factors (insurance, securities, electricity).

2026 GDP Growth Rate May Remain Around 4.9%

Regarding the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, Ming Ming, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, stated in his “Global Economic Rebalancing” speech that China’s economy is expected to continue recovering amid volatility. Ming Ming estimates that China’s real GDP growth in 2026 will likely stay around 4.9%, with the annual growth showing a “V” shape, and nominal GDP expected to rebound rapidly amid rising inflation. On macro policy, fiscal policy will remain proactive, with the deficit rate maintained at 4%, special bonds likely to tilt toward project construction, and policy financial instruments increasing to 800 billion yuan, with a focus on quasi-fiscal measures. As for monetary policy, there is room for “flexible and efficient” use of reserve ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts and one reserve ratio cut throughout the year, and greater use of structural tools.

On the global landscape, Ming Ming pointed out that the global economic pattern is expected to enter a phase of rebalancing. The U.S. economy faces structural issues, with inflation and economic weakness intertwined, leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious pace of rate cuts. In terms of major assets, equities are relatively attractive amid recovery and inflation; short-term government bond yields are expected to fluctuate around 1.8%; and the RMB is expected to appreciate modestly in a weak dollar environment.

Yang Fan, Chief Macro and Policy Analyst at CITIC Securities, believes that the current macro and policy situation presents a pattern of “reform breakthroughs and industrial leaps.” Externally, the long-term reshaping of the Middle East geopolitical landscape, the impact of U.S. midterm elections on policy focus, and the likelihood of multiple U.S.-China summit meetings this year suggest stability in bilateral relations. Domestically, moderate recovery of demand, steady government work report targets, clear re-inflation expectations, and fiscal policies remaining stable from last year are key factors. Meanwhile, under debt-to-asset restructuring, local governments’ leverage increase is limited, and the policy tools’ leverage effect is expected to be prominent.

Yang Fan stated that reforms are advancing on multiple fronts, with debt restructuring entering its final sprint, income distribution reforms continuing to deepen to narrow income gaps and expand the middle-income group; efforts to counter internal competition balance short-term capacity regulation and long-term institutional reform; fiscal and tax reforms strengthening central government coordination and optimizing fiscal resource distribution. On the industrial side, focus is on energy security and the strategy of building a strong aerospace nation, with accelerated construction of a modern industrial system and new emerging industries presenting development opportunities.