Pork prices hit 15-year lows! Losing money on every pig raised - even leading pig enterprises can't hold out

Why is it difficult to reverse the oversupply of live pigs?

Reporter Chen Shan

The live pig farming market is currently experiencing “deep losses.”

This week, live pig futures prices have declined for five consecutive trading days. As of the close on March 20, 2026, the main contract 2605 closed at 10,220 yuan per ton, down more than 8% from last Friday’s close. During trading, it dipped to a low of 10,215 yuan per ton, hitting the lowest point since the contract’s listing.

The spot market is also weakening. According to data from a domestic agency, on March 20, the average price for lean pigs nationwide was 9.89 yuan per kilogram, the lowest in nearly 15 years since May 9, 2018, when it was 9.92 yuan per kilogram. This is only about 0.3 yuan per kilogram above the low in 2010.

Currently, leading pig farming companies have costs around 12 yuan per kilogram, meaning pig prices have fallen well below production costs, with spot prices seriously inverted relative to costs. According to Yongyi Consulting, from March 6 to March 12, the industry’s average loss was 250–300 yuan per head, with losses continuing to widen. The duration of continuous losses in pig farming is approaching half a year.

Losses Widening

Since July 2025, the spot prices of commercial pigs have entered a bottoming phase. In October last year, the average price fell below 11 yuan per kilogram. Although the Spring Festival demand temporarily boosted prices in the fourth quarter, prices fell sharply again after the holiday.

Top companies are also not immune to losses. In 2025, the performance of related listed companies generally declined or forecast losses. Among them, Muyuan Foods expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.7–15.7 billion yuan, down 12.20%–17.79% year-on-year; Wens Food Group’s quick report shows total operating revenue of 103.884 billion yuan, down 1.67% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.235 billion yuan, down 43.59%; Tianbang Food forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.11 to -1.31 billion yuan; New Wufeng expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of -700 million to -960 million yuan.

Entering 2026, losses on the breeding side continue to deepen. According to data from Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute, as of March 13, 2026, the loss per pig in self-breeding and self-rearing mode was 283 yuan, and the loss for piglets purchased externally was 118 yuan per head. Since February, as pig prices continued to decline, losses in both modes have expanded.

Latest operational data from leading listed pig companies also reflect this trend. New Hope announced that in February 2026, pig sales increased by 19.97% year-on-year, but sales revenue decreased by 7.42%. The average selling price of commercial pigs was 11.45 yuan per kilogram, down 8.25% month-on-month and 21.79% year-on-year. Muyuan’s February average selling price was 11.59 yuan per kilogram, down 18.72% year-on-year; sales revenue was 6.405 billion yuan, down 23.98%. Wens Food Group sold 2.697 million pigs in February, up 3.80% year-on-year, but revenue dropped 15.58%.

Regarding the continued decline in pig prices after the New Year, Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Veterinary Medicine Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told the Economic Observer that the core reason for the decline is the oversupply and weak demand. From the demand side, pork consumption after the Spring Festival quickly enters the off-season, with a clear seasonal weakness. From the supply side, the number of productive sows in the first half of 2025 remained high, and the effective number of piglets per sow steadily increased, leading to ample pig supply in the first quarter of 2026. In January, slaughter volume at designated slaughterhouses reached 44.04 million pigs, a 15.40% increase year-on-year.

Another industry analyst told the Economic Observer that the post-holiday consumption lull in March further exacerbates supply and demand mismatch, putting downward pressure on prices. The analyst also mentioned that policies like reserve purchases in 2025 had limited impact on boosting pig prices. Under the pressure of oversupply, policy effects have weakened, and current price trends are mainly driven by fundamental supply and demand.

Prolonged Bottoming

Faced with a deepening cycle of losses, many pig companies have proactively reduced capacity and optimized capital allocation to cope with the “winter.” For example, Tiankang Biological terminated the “Gansu Tiankang 300,000 pig breeding and 200,000 pig fattening project” in March 2025, reallocating 501 million yuan raised to supplement liquidity; Tianbang Food halted the 1.306 billion yuan “Smart Pig Farm Upgrade Project”; Huatong Co., Ltd. scaled back two major pig farming projects totaling 770 million yuan; Yisheng Co., Ltd. stopped a pig farm construction project and redirected 200 million yuan to poultry business.

Since 2026, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, the pig-to-grain ratio has continued to decline, and pork stockpiling has been promptly carried out. According to Huachu.com, on March 4, 2026, the central reserve stored 10,000 tons of frozen pork through bidding.

CITIC Futures’ agricultural team analyzed that when pig prices are very low, pork stockpiling policies can provide some psychological and slaughter demand support, but their effect is limited and not sustained. If prices remain low into the second quarter, further stockpiling policies may be triggered. Additionally, the current pig production capacity remains excessive. After policy warnings are intensified, attention should also be paid to the implementation of anti-inflation policies.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, the team believes that with ample pig slaughter volume, high inventory weights, and the off-season, prices may continue to weaken as inventory is released. Pig farming is expected to remain unprofitable, with cash flows tightening and capacity reduction ongoing. In the long term, with productivity improving and market concentration increasing in recent years, the resilience of breeding entities to losses has strengthened, and capacity reduction is likely to persist, potentially prolonging the pig cycle bottom.

The aforementioned industry analyst noted that while losses on the breeding side do not necessarily mean pig prices have bottomed out, current prices are relatively low. Further price declines would have limited impact on demand. Even if market transactions are moderate, the willingness to lower prices among breeders is relatively weak, so further downward space is limited.

He further stated that from a policy perspective, capacity regulation in pig production may continue, and breeders might adjust the breeding rate of productive sows to control supply and ease losses. Based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and related to productive sow numbers, pig prices are expected to gradually rise in the second half of 2026.

Zhu Zengyong believes that abundant supply and weak demand will keep pig prices under short-term pressure. As supply and demand improve, prices are expected to recover in the second half of the year. He pointed out that since the third quarter of 2025, the national sow inventory has been gradually decreasing. As the effect of capacity reduction becomes more apparent, supply pressure should ease. Coupled with moderate holiday stocking boosting catering and household consumption, pig prices are expected to gradually recover from the lows, though a turning point remains unlikely.