Institution Says Iran Conflict Could Lead to Further 10% Decline in Indian Stock Market

MaticHoleFiller

2026-03-20 15:36:28

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According to Emkay Global, if oil prices remain at $100 per barrel over the next three to four months, the Indian NSE Nifty 50 Index could “plunge to around 21,000 points,” as this would impact corporate earnings by disrupting demand and squeezing profit margins.

The scenario of oil prices staying above $100 per barrel in the next 3-4 months would impact India’s economic growth and profitability. “This has not yet been fully priced into the market. We believe that without easing measures, the Nifty index faces about a 10% downside risk,” say strategists.

However, strategists also note that this correction is temporary. Once crude oil prices recover to a normal level of $70 per barrel, India’s economy and earnings are expected to rebound, providing a good entry point.

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