The index continues to decline steadily, and a rebound window is approaching.

3.20
The market continued to decline this week, with very limited hot-spot effects. Here are some thoughts and insights.
For example, on Monday, I was thinking about electricity. I identified a low-position electric power construction stock that was at the bottom of its intraday trading range, but its performance at the next day’s open was not ideal, so I didn’t think much more about it.
On Tuesday, my focus was on two points. One was the opening of Shunna’s stock and its subsequent decline, which I had previously discussed in relation to its second wave of correction. By Tuesday, this was already quite lagging, because we judged that after its opening, based on its performance, it probably wouldn’t sustain well the next day. Since there wasn’t much room for intraday volatility that day, I chose to give up.
Meanwhile, in the afternoon, above the relative close near the zero axis of the Jinniu index, I considered the evening’s methanol futures rally expectations. However, the recent stock market has been very weak. The reason for this weakness, which I also explained during the session, is mainly due to conflicts causing energy fluctuations that impact the market. So, positive factors are in futures, but the stock market is under negative pressure. As a result, liquidity has been flowing into the futures market, while the stock market’s performance remains sluggish.
Since our main focus is on stocks, we had no choice but to select some futures-correlated stocks. When we judged the rise of methanol, we also considered Jinniu, but how about the next day, Wednesday? Not ideal. This illustrates the direct contrast between futures and stocks in terms of market strength. On Tuesday night, methanol futures rose; on Wednesday morning, the stock opened with volatility, including the night session rise, and Thursday’s daytime opening was also volatile. Stocks tend to open with volatility each time, so despite the futures rally, stocks remain quiet.
Therefore, after judging on Wednesday that the intraday rebound lacked strength, I exited near the key points I had been watching since Tuesday. The idea was that stocks had already fallen behind futures, so even if methanol rose again on Wednesday night, the Thursday Jinniu rally would be weak. The highest point during the day was just the rebound point from Wednesday, so it was all the same in the end. Moreover, during the Wednesday rebound, we clearly considered the possibility that the rebound might not break the daily support level, so when you haven’t seen Thursday’s situation, is it appropriate to bet on a gap-up opening? Clearly not. So, I decisively exited based on the support level expectation on Wednesday.
When I exited on Wednesday, my focus shifted to the leading stock in the storage sector, Langke, which was the point of interest. However, at that time, Langke was waiting for a pullback. Although I had already judged its upward potential early in the session, I also noted that the valuation at that position was not attractive, and it was not an ideal candidate for high attention.
After Langke’s breakout on Wednesday, Thursday experienced a large gap down. Because the environment was so unfavorable, I chose to wait and observe. It wasn’t until Friday afternoon that there was a slight rebound opportunity.
Recently, the environment has been very poor. Although the indices closed green for one day, it can also be seen as the seventh consecutive day of decline—no looking back. The number of stocks hitting the daily limit-up is very low, mostly single digits. Even the very strong Liaoning Energy on Friday saw an early surge due to market pressure. Overall sentiment is very poor.
However, the energy crisis has now entered a critical phase. Countries can no longer endure it, as seen in the current oil prices, which reflect the struggles of transportation-related industries. This suggests that the energy crisis is approaching a historical peak. Even if there are future changes, large-scale upward movement is unlikely unless a full-scale war breaks out. But that’s improbable, as no one wants to fight; most are just posturing, and no one is willing to pay the price for conflict.
Based on this outlook, the index may be near a short-term bottom. A rebound could follow. So, the current market is both pessimistic and also brewing opportunities. The risk at the high level of 4100 is significant, but at 3800, many might not see it as risky anymore. Pay attention to this shift in sentiment.
These are some of the thoughts and insights for this week.