Huatai Futures: Resonance of Macro Fundamentals and Market Sentiment, Platinum and Palladium Plunged Yesterday

Hot Topics

Selected Stocks Data Center Market Center Capital Flows Simulated Trading

Client

Source: Huatai Futures

Author: New Energy and Nonferrous Metals Group

Yesterday, platinum and palladium futures dropped sharply, with platinum main contract PT2606 opening at 530 yuan/gram and closing at 532.8 yuan/gram, down 3.49% for the day, with open interest of 19,600 lots and a trading volume of 6,410 lots; palladium main contract PD2606 opened at 396.15 yuan/gram and closed at 398.55 yuan/gram, down 4.23% for the day, with open interest of 7,771 lots and a trading volume of 3,041 lots.

The sharp decline mainly stems from a resonance of macro factors and market sentiment: Middle East geopolitical conflicts pushed oil prices higher, raising concerns about secondary inflation; Fed rate cut expectations were delayed from July to September; the dollar strengthened, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose, increasing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals; earlier gains led to profit-taking at high levels, combined with a decline in safe-haven premiums, increased non-commercial net short positions in palladium, and strengthened bearish forces; additionally, platinum and palladium are industrial metals, and the market remains cautious about global industrial recovery. Palladium faces long-term pressure from electric vehicle substitution and platinum replacement, with small market size and low liquidity amplifying declines. The large price gap between domestic and foreign markets triggered arbitrage funds to suppress domestic prices, and technical breakdowns below key moving averages triggered stop-losses.

Looking ahead, in the short term, focus should be on the Fed’s March 18 interest rate decision, which is likely to result in sideways consolidation with low probability of a sharp decline, supported by high leasing rates, platinum supply-demand gaps, and decreasing palladium inventories. The elasticity of platinum and palladium remains greater than gold. In the medium term, if the rate cut remains unchanged and central bank gold purchases continue, the price center may rise. Platinum has an advantage due to rigid supply and hydrogen energy demand, while palladium’s upside is limited by shrinking auto demand. Opportunities may exist in widening the platinum-palladium spread. Long-term, platinum benefits from South Africa’s power shortages and insufficient capital expenditure, making it a solid investment. Palladium faces downward pressure due to rising electric vehicle penetration and accelerated platinum substitution.

Risk Warning: Be alert to geopolitical escalation, monetary policy shifts, and faster-than-expected substitution.

Investment Advisory Qualification: Securities Regulatory License [2011] No. 1289

Disclaimer:

This report is prepared based on information deemed reliable and publicly available, but the company makes no guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. The opinions, conclusions, and forecasts in this report only reflect the views and judgments at the time of publication. The company may issue research reports inconsistent with those opinions, assessments, and forecasts at different times. The company does not guarantee that the information contained remains up-to-date. The company reserves the right to modify the information without notice; investors should pay attention to updates or revisions. The company strives for objectivity and fairness, but the opinions, conclusions, and recommendations are for reference only. Investors should not rely solely on this report to make decisions. The company and authors are not responsible for any consequences resulting from reliance on or use of this report. All rights to the content of this report are owned by the company. No organization or individual may reproduce, copy, publish, quote, or redistribute in any form without written permission. If quoting or publishing with permission, it must be within the permitted scope and clearly state “Huatai Futures Research Institute” as the source, and avoid misquoting, truncating, or modifying the report. The company reserves the right to pursue legal responsibility. All trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are trademarks and service marks of the company. Huatai Futures Co., Ltd. owns all rights.

Open a futures account with Huatai, professional and trustworthy

Massive information, precise analysis, all on Sina Finance APP

Editor: Zhu Hennan