UBS maintains an optimistic outlook on US stocks, expecting the S&P 500 to reach 7,700 points.

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-20T12:20:42+00:00

UBS maintains an "attractive" rating on the US stock market, forecasting that the S&P 500 will reach 7,700 points by 2026, mainly benefiting from healthy profit growth and supportive policies from the Federal Reserve. Despite tense geopolitical situations, market resilience remains, and UBS warns of possible risks, but expects the stock market to rise by the end of the year.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-20 12:20:42

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Investing.com - UBS maintains an “attractive” rating for the U.S. stock market, believing that despite geopolitical tensions and recent market volatility, the fundamental drivers of a bull market remain intact.

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In a report led by the bank’s Chief Investment Officer and U.S. Equity Head David Lefkowitz, UBS states that the S&P 500 is expected to reach 7,300 points by June 2026 and 7,700 points by December 2026, thanks to “healthy profit growth, supportive Federal Reserve policies, and the application of artificial intelligence.”

UBS believes that the market’s resilience so far this year reflects a supportive macro environment.

The bank wrote: “Profits are growing at a healthy pace, the Federal Reserve may cut rates later this year, and the application of artificial intelligence should create value for shareholders.” UBS forecasts the S&P 500’s earnings per share at $310 in 2026, with an 11% growth rate.

Regarding geopolitics, UBS’s baseline scenario assumes that any conflict between the U.S. and Iran will only cause short-term disruptions to energy supplies.

The bank expects oil prices to retreat from recent highs, paving the way for a stock market rally.

UBS warns that if “energy supplies in the Persian Gulf do not recover in the coming weeks, investors should prepare for a decline in the stock market,” but also notes that historically, the S&P 500 “tends to rise after geopolitical events.”

UBS also highlights market signals pointing to further gains. The bank notes that when volatility spiked in March, the VIX closed above 29 points, “higher than 93% of historical observations,” and historically, the S&P 500 has averaged returns of over 20% in the following year.

UBS continues to expect the U.S. stock market to rise for the rest of the year, reaffirming its year-end target of 7,700 points.

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