Production is increasing, inventories are decreasing, and orders are strong—signs of an inflection point have already appeared in the photovoltaic industry.

Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network data shows that in March, the production of solar cells within the sample increased by 26% month-on-month. As the window for the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates approaches, manufacturers are resuming production enthusiasm. Solar cell inventories continue to decline, with overseas orders and downstream traders’ orders being the main sources of current demand. Manufacturers with stable overseas sales channels performed well in March, with minimal new inventory.

Signs of a turning point in the photovoltaic industry have emerged. In Q3 2025, polysilicon prices surged significantly month-on-month, helping some companies reduce losses, indicating the initial effects of “countering internal competition.”

By 2026, the photovoltaic industry will still focus on “countering internal competition.” It is expected that the supply-demand gap across the entire photovoltaic industry will gradually narrow, and prices at various points in the supply chain are likely to gradually recover.

In terms of silicon materials, the industry is determined to maintain stable prices. If the silicon industry continues to promote production cuts and halts in 2026, the supply-demand gap is expected to further narrow, providing a basis for price and profit stabilization and recovery. The silicon wafer industry has significantly slowed new capacity additions since 2025, maintaining supply and demand balance.

For BC batteries, driven by cost reductions and scene-based application demands, their penetration rate is expected to steadily increase. This year, with supply-side clearing and a moderation of price wars, the gross profit margin of the module industry is also expected to see some recovery.

Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to be a “turning point year” for the photovoltaic industry. With silicon stockpiling driving supply contraction and demand recovery boosting profit restoration, the industry is likely to emerge from a two-year downward cycle. Institutions believe that global new installed capacity for photovoltaics will continue to grow over the next 3-5 years. Traditional markets like China, Europe, and the US are entering a plateau phase, while emerging markets such as the Middle East, India, and Latin America will maintain rapid growth. Global new installed capacity in 2026 is projected to reach 630-650 GW.

Specifically, in the A-share market, as of March 2026, the valuation of the photovoltaic sector remains at a historic low. With the industry’s push against “internal competition,” oversupply is expected to improve, and the photovoltaic supply chain may turn profitable again by 2026. Under the resonance of improved supply-demand patterns and accelerated technological iteration, the valuation of the photovoltaic sector will gradually recover. Leading companies with strong technological capabilities and cost control are worth attention. (Everbright Securities Micro News)