Today's Perspective: Top Brokerages Form Three Major "Spring Consensus"

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■ Li Wen

In mid-March, as spring deepens, the capital markets have entered a period of intensive collision of research and investment opinions from major institutions. With more than a dozen leading brokerages successively holding their 2026 spring strategy meetings, the investment outlook for the coming year is gradually becoming clearer. Although each institution emphasizes different aspects in their investment pace and sector segmentation, there is a growing consensus on macroeconomic judgment, market trend recognition, and core mainline deployment. These shared views are not only objective assessments by professional research teams of the economic cycle but also a positive response from the market to the era theme of “China’s economy shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development.”

First, the valuation logic of the A-share market is shifting from “liquidity-driven” to “profit-driven.”

In recent spring strategy meetings held by institutions, the term “profit-driven” has been frequently mentioned. Most believe that as the effects of previous steady-growth policies continue to unfold, a substantial rebound in corporate profitability will become the core support for the next phase of market trends. This consensus is grounded in solid macro fundamentals: the narrowing decline of the PPI (Producer Price Index) and the marginal improvement in industrial enterprise profits both lay a foundation for stabilizing and rebounding corporate earnings. When the market is led by profits rather than liquidity, its foundation for upward movement becomes more solid, and the sustainability and resilience of the market will significantly improve.

Second, the speed of economic structural optimization is accelerating, and growth models are shifting from “scale expansion” to “value creation.”

Research from institutions generally conveys strong confidence in China’s economic restructuring. As efforts to “counteract involution” continue and industry self-regulation mechanisms take shape, corporate competition is gradually shifting from past price and cost battles—an “internal struggle”—to “value growth” based on product strength, brand power, and bargaining ability. Against this backdrop, China’s long-standing manufacturing capacity and scale advantages are gradually transforming into profit advantages.

Third, “technology + cycle” dual drivers are shaping a new investment landscape.

At the asset allocation level, the consensus from brokerage strategy meetings is particularly valuable: the market is no longer limited to extreme interpretations of a single style but is beginning to form a “technology + cycle” dual-driven pattern. The long-term core themes, such as artificial intelligence representing new productive forces, are further consolidating their position. Investment perspectives are expanding from hardware computing power to broader application scenarios, spreading from technological breakthroughs to fields like energy supporting infrastructure and power equipment—“new infrastructure.” Meanwhile, the valuation reassessment of cyclical industries is another highlight repeatedly mentioned by institutions. China’s globally competitive advantageous cyclical industries are experiencing a “reassessment of pricing power.” This is not only an opportunity for short-term trading driven by price fluctuations but also a reflection of China’s manufacturing sector’s systemic rise in the global industrial chain. When technological innovation’s “sharpness” combines with manufacturing’s “depth,” the market structure will become more balanced, and market trends will be more resilient.

Overall, the messages conveyed by the 2026 spring strategy meetings of brokerages are clear and optimistic: China’s economic transition from old to new kinetic energy is accelerating, corporate profitability is showing strong certainty of improvement, and residents’ savings continue to flow into capital markets, with incremental funds seeking new allocation directions. The formation of these shared views not only injects confidence into the market but also outlines a high-quality development path for the capital markets in 2026.