Ouyang Minghao: Pure Electric Drive Anchors the Outcome for the Next Decade, Market Share to Exceed 70% by 2035

On March 13, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ouyang Minggao, delivered an in-depth analysis at the 2026 Car Conference Expert Media Exchange, focusing on the current development status of China’s new energy vehicle industry, core technological directions, and the future ten-year development outlook. He pointed out that by 2026, the automotive industry will enter a new cycle of high-quality development led by innovation, with pure electric drive becoming the industry’s future dominant force; meanwhile, the highly anticipated all-solid-state batteries are not the “hexagonal warriors” that balance all performance aspects, and their large-scale adoption still requires 3-5 years. Currently, lithium iron phosphate batteries remain the “ballast stone” for industry development.

Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ouyang Minggao (second from right), Car Conference Chairman Zhang Yongwei (second from left), Vice Chairman Liu Xiaoshi (first from left), Vice Chairman and Director of the Car Think Tank Research Institute Shi Jianhua (first from right)

Currently, while China’s new energy vehicle industry is achieving leapfrog development, it is also facing the problem of “involution” competition caused by product homogenization. According to Ouyang Minggao, this issue stems from three levels: government, industry, and market. On the government side, local governments compete over “the new three (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic products)” through招商内耗, and the competition for tax and other preferential policies has worsened industry imbalance; on the industry side, technological innovation has entered a plateau, with product homogenization and single business models causing automakers to fall into a “prisoner’s dilemma” of price cuts; on the market side, the shift from incremental to stock-based automotive markets, with new energy and fuel vehicles competing directly, along with chaos in self-media marketing, once led to the phenomenon of “bad money driving out good,” though now self-media has gradually returned to rational technical interpretation.

In response to the pain points of industry involution, Ouyang Minggao proposed a comprehensive governance approach. The government needs to shift its招商考核 focus from solely production value to industry quality, promote a comprehensive transformation of tax policies from production to consumption, and improve product quality standards while strengthening recall supervision; on the industry side, technological innovation should be at the core, with leading companies taking the lead in building healthy supply chains, enhancing industry self-discipline, and breaking through the bottleneck of homogenized development; on the market level, it is necessary to establish an official information disclosure platform with government credibility, crack down on water armies and black PR, and improve public awareness through science popularization to guide the market back to rationality.

Ouyang Minggao emphasized that the new cycle of innovation starting in 2026 will feature stricter safety supervision, higher technical thresholds, improved public opinion environment, enhanced customer awareness, the transformation of old and new driving forces, dominance of pure electric power, slowing market growth, fierce stock competition, innovation-led markets, failure of follow-up models, accelerated transformation and restructuring of production methods, domestic involution suppression, and intensified overseas competition. Over the next five years, the industry should focus on seven core technological directions: full-process safety, ultra-fast charging for all weather, full autonomous driving, full chassis control, all-solid-state batteries, high efficiency across all conditions, and full-function electric vehicles, to create new momentum for industry development.

Regarding the highly anticipated all-solid-state batteries, Ouyang Minggao clearly stated that they are not the “hexagonal warriors” that balance energy density, safety, and cost all at once. They are only optimized for safety and cost based on higher energy density, and the technology is still in its early stages. They are not absolutely safe and face a series of scientific challenges related to key materials, interfaces, electrodes, and cells. He predicts that by the end of this year to next year, test vehicles equipped with all-solid-state batteries will appear domestically, but achieving large-scale popularization with an energy density of 300-350Wh/kg will likely still take 3-5 years. Automakers should not rush to launch related products in the next two years; technological development should proceed gradually to avoid problems caused by rushing.

He also emphasized that at this stage, it is crucial to firmly maintain lithium iron phosphate batteries as the “ballast stone,” calling them “one of the best gifts from God to the Chinese.” Currently, lithium iron phosphate batteries can achieve a range of 1,000 kilometers, and although they are heavier, they offer safety, low cost, and long lifespan advantages. By 2025, their capacity will reach 1.7 billion kWh with a growth rate of 60%, making them the fundamental basis for industry development.

Looking ahead ten years, Ouyang Minggao stated that as China’s wind and photovoltaic renewable energy capacity continues to increase, new energy vehicles will evolve from the 1.0 and 2.0 eras of power electrification and vehicle intelligence to the 3.0 era of energy decarbonization. In this process, pure electric vehicles will dominate due to their highest efficiency in utilizing green electricity, deep integration with renewable energy, lowest energy costs, fastest control response, and strongest global competitiveness.

He predicts that by 2035, China’s market share of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 75%-85%, with pure electric vehicles accounting for over 70%. By 2040, the market share will further increase to 85%-95%, with electric vehicles making up 80%, ultimately forming an industry landscape dominated by pure electric vehicles and widespread application of Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology, where electric vehicles supply power back to the grid.

He concluded by emphasizing that developing new energy vehicles is an essential path for China to move from a major automobile country to a strong automobile nation. The industry should build a technological powerhouse through “electrification + intelligence + decarbonization,” and aim for globalization to make new energy vehicles a leading product in the international market. In technological development, it is important to both firmly invest in next-generation core technologies like all-solid-state batteries and solidify the foundation of existing lithium iron phosphate battery technology, pacing progress steadily and gradually to achieve high-quality, sustainable industry development.