US Treasury Department intervenes in crude oil futures? CME warns: this move could lead to disastrous consequences!

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Source: Cailian Press

Cailian Press, March 13 — (Editor: Bian Chun) The head of CME Group recently warned the Trump administration that attempting to manipulate the derivatives market to lower oil prices during a war with Iran could lead to “catastrophic consequences.”

Terry Duffy, CEO of CME Group, said at a conference this week that government intervention in the futures market to curb rising oil prices would undermine market confidence.

US crude oil futures are traded on CME Group’s exchange.

“Markets don’t like government interference in pricing,” Duffy said. He warned that such actions could trigger “disastrous consequences,” as investors might lose faith in the market’s ability to determine key commodity prices.

Before Duffy made these comments, reports indicated that the U.S. Treasury was considering measures to lower oil prices, including market interventions.

On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced it would release 172 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves as a safeguard against oil price shocks — the latest move to curb rising crude prices.

Analysts say the Trump administration could also take other measures to protect American consumers, such as suspending federal gasoline taxes, relaxing fuel environmental regulations, or temporarily banning U.S. crude oil exports.

Has the U.S. Treasury already intervened?

However, recent sharp fluctuations in oil prices have sparked speculation among energy traders that the U.S. Treasury may have already stepped into the futures market. On Monday, international oil prices surged to nearly $120 per barrel before falling sharply back below $100.

Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at energy consultancy Energy Aspects, said the firm received numerous calls this week asking whether recent large trades behind unexplained market moves had government involvement.

“Clients keep asking us who the big seller really is,” Skirrow said.

“Market speculation suggests the seller might be the U.S. Treasury,” he added, noting that the U.S. government has previously intervened in other markets, such as currency markets.

Rapidan Energy Group, founded by former White House energy advisor Bob McNally, said this week that while such government actions would be “unprecedented,” it is clear that “the idea of the U.S. Treasury selling near-month crude futures” is “getting more attention than usual.”

“Given the current market panic,” the analyst wrote in a client report, “we cannot completely rule out this possibility.”

However, a person familiar with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s thinking told the media that the Treasury has not intervened in the oil market. A Department of Energy spokesperson also stated that the department is not involved in oil derivatives trading and has not advised other government agencies on such actions.

This week, some other actions by U.S. officials have also raised questions in the oil market.

On Tuesday, oil prices fell sharply after a post by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wray on social media platform X surprised traders. In the post, he claimed that the U.S. Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The post was quickly deleted, and the White House later denied that the Navy had escorted any ships through the strait.

John Evans, an analyst at oil broker PVM, wrote on Thursday that it’s unclear whether Wray’s post was “another case of pure incompetence or something more serious like deception.”

Wray stated on Thursday that naval escort operations are unlikely to begin before the end of March.

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Editor: Zhao Siyuan