Can the index withstand the third dip to 4050??

The index has dropped to 4050 three times and has all been recovered. Can 4050 become the lower boundary of the oscillation zone? From March 15 to 19, the OFC Optical Communication Conference has this expectation, and today’s communication sector also showed a weak recovery, which was relatively scattered. Today, PCB manufacturing performed slightly better. From March 16 to 19, the NVIDIA GTC 2026 conference is expected, with storage performing stronger on Friday, Damingli reached new highs, and today, Baiwei Storage also broke through and hit a historical high. The performance is good, and there are also earnings expectations. Today is Monday, and the market did not increase volume, still shrinking by 75 billion, indicating very pessimistic funds. So, let’s first regard 4050 as the lower boundary of the oscillation zone. Based on today’s trend, the expectation should be upward, but if it again approaches 4050, then unconditional liquidation is necessary because, according to the pattern, the risk will increase. [Taogu Ba]

Since the new weekly nodes on Monday have not been recognized by the market for two consecutive weeks, will this week be as difficult as last week? Generally, Monday is the best time to nurture new nodes. Last week didn’t see a breakout, and today’s marine economy also didn’t break out, so the tone for this week is basically set as a defensive week. Currently, there is still high-speed rotation, so we will use small positions to prepare for rotation.

Looking at today, today’s technology sector led the index’s recovery, but can this continue tomorrow? If it continues, then the index should show a positive line. Currently, it’s only because of conference funds creating expectations for the conference, and the high-speed rotation market. Today’s communication and chip sectors also didn’t recover strongly, so continuation is unlikely. There should be expectations of a surge.

Market judgment:
· CNPC Capital 3.154 billion yuan is based on the weekend’s fermentation of Iran’s consideration to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, considering permitting a limited number of oil tankers to pass, provided that the oil cargo is settled in RMB. A straight line indicates that the confidence level of funds is not high.
· Dongfang Ocean 509 million yuan, this was fermented over the weekend, related to the important article published in the 6th issue of “Qiushi” magazine on March 16, titled “Promoting High-Quality Development of Marine Economy.” This direction is also not strong enough. Huadian Liaoning Energy also has marine concepts, but previously focused on power, with very low strength, so this direction has not formed a synergy.
· Boen Group 509 million yuan, such considerations are no longer within the scope; top one-word agriculture, no need to watch, wait for a correction.
Based on the above market bidding judgments, today mainly focuses on defensive low-buying.

Market outlook:
Major trend: Oscillation, rotation market, the index has not stabilized yet. If it again reaches 4050, unconditional liquidation is necessary.
Minor trend: Today, storage and communication led the index’s recovery, but the strength is not strong, so the risk has not been eliminated. Focus on defense.
Sentiment: Sentiment remains quite subdued. Long-term leader Yunnan Energy Holdings has two consecutive limit-downs, which has a negative feedback on sentiment.

热点：存储芯片 海洋经济
Storage Chips: Core: Baiwei Storage
Storage and communication are both expected to be driven by this week’s conference, but continuation is unlikely.
Marine Economy: Core: Dongfang Ocean
The marine economy also did not pick up today. The core of the ChiNext is Deepwater Hainan. If there’s a small probability that Dongfang Ocean’s order book strengthens tomorrow, it could be considered for ChiNext arbitrage.
Currently, it’s not easy to bet on a rebound. The market is dominated by quantitative factors, with frequent A-shares kills. Don’t expect too much from rebounds that are quickly disproved.

Summary: The market is currently in a very weak phase. It’s best to withdraw funds from your account, play with small amounts to feel the market, and add back when it warms up. The difficulty of the market is increasing, and rotation is weakening. The current strategy remains as a lurking approach: don’t chase highs, don’t hit the board, take profits when available, and avoid overconfidence.
Do you think this week will be promising? When do you think the market will recover?

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