Research Report Direct Access Returns—3.16

Sorry for the delay. First, I was busy with family matters and took some time off. Second, the market has been volatile, and the more effort I put in now, the greater the account losses. I am officially back today. [Taogu Ba]

1. Market Overview

Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index declined by 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.19%, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.41%, and the STAR 50 gained 0.83%. The combined trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 75 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day.
Hong Kong Stocks: Reversal signals on the left side are strengthening (2026-03-16). As market sentiment gradually recovers and fundamentals improve, Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a phased rebound. Currently, sustained capital inflows and valuations entering historically low levels provide solid support for the Hong Kong market.

2. Why do we continue to emphasize the opportunities in the storage sector?

Event: Samsung expects memory shortages to end by 2028, which means the company needs to adjust its capacity plans based on demand forecasts to avoid overexpansion.
Reaffirmation of View: We continue to highlight opportunities in the storage sector because upcoming catalysts are arriving one after another. (1) Micron’s earnings on 3/18 (reflecting Q1 price increases, likely to beat expectations). (2) Samsung’s Q2 price hikes, expected to surpass expectations. (3) Price increases gradually reflected in Q1 earnings, with domestic storage manufacturers also likely to exceed expectations in Q1.
Additionally, while emphasizing the upward cycle of storage, we also focus on the growth potential of domestic manufacturers in this cycle. Original manufacturers are shifting their operational focus to North American CSPs and gradually withdrawing from consumer electronics (PCs, mobile phones, earphones, AIOT). Due to the significant scale gap between original manufacturers and domestic niche storage and module companies, the transfer of market share will create broad market opportunities for domestic storage over the next 3-5 years. #It is recommended to pay attention to the growth potential of emerging businesses of various manufacturers.
Related Companies: Niche Storage: #GigaDevice #PuRan #Beijing Junzheng #Dongxin #Juchen #Hengshuo NAND Modules: #Jiangbolong #Buwei Storage #Demingli

DRAM Modules: #Shannon Core #Spacetime Technology
Risk Tips: Storage price fluctuations, demand below expectations, increased industry competition

3. How will major asset classes and industries perform after six rounds of oil supply shocks?

Reviewing the performance of assets following six historical oil supply shocks reveals that policy responses are the key variables determining asset performance. Different policy approaches lead to entirely different performances across major asset classes and industry structures:

If policies prioritize anti-inflation measures through significant interest rate hikes and recession to combat inflation:
Major asset classes: Rate hikes strengthen the dollar and U.S. bond yields, which will suppress equity performance in the medium to long term. Gold will benefit from its anti-inflation properties over the long term.
Industry structure: “Energy dominates,” and other industries tend to face long-term pressure from economic stagflation.

If inflation pressures are generally controllable and policies prioritize economic growth to maintain easing measures and support recovery:
Major asset classes: The dollar and U.S. bond yields weaken with rate cuts, easing valuation pressures on equities. As fundamentals gradually recover, equity markets will strengthen over the medium to long term. Gold will also benefit from rate cuts in the long term.
Industry structure: [Consumer, Healthcare, Technology, Financials & Real Estate] will be temporarily suppressed but will gradually strengthen with liquidity easing and economic recovery. Conversely, [Energy, Raw Materials] may weaken in the long term.

4. Commercial aerospace will see intensive catalysts

#Recent policy and industry progress accelerate.

1. Policy side: Aerospace and aviation are mentioned for the first time as emerging pillar industries in the “14th Five-Year Plan,” with satellite internet included as a major infrastructure project.
2. Domestic: Signalway Communication announced a private placement plan investing 3.56 billion yuan to build satellite communication devices and components; Shanghai Yuanxin disclosed additional capital; Tri-Force Defense (40%) and Xic Testing (28%) jointly established a satellite in-orbit delivery joint venture covering satellite design, launch, in-orbit tracking and control, and data services, with a registered capital of 500 million yuan.
3. Overseas: Eutelsat (operator of OneWeb) completed 5 billion euro financing for the construction of the second-generation OneWeb constellation; AT&T announced over $25 billion investment in satellite mobile communications over the next five years; Starcloud submitted an application for 88,000 space computing satellites to FDD.

From March to April, heavy and intensive catalysts:

1. Domestic: Launches of Tianlong-3, Lijian-2, Chang-12B, Chang-10 Yi (a previous maritime splashdown variant), and Zhuque-3 Yao-2 are expected, especially the April launches of Chang-10 Yi and Zhuque-3, which may achieve breakthroughs in rocket recovery.
2. Overseas: SpaceX may submit an IPO application in March; Starship V3 has moved to the launch site for preparations. #Starship V3 and first-stage recovery represent significant turning points for both the global industry and the domestic industry.

#Focus on core assets with strong positioning. Currently, market risk appetite is suppressed by international events. We believe commercial aerospace is one of the few “HALO assets” with strong policy support, significant US-China resonance, and industry trend. The current adjustment period has been sufficient in both time and space. The second market cycle requires “eliminating falsehoods and retaining truths,” focusing more on the certainty brought by strong positioning, and emphasizing core assets in inflation:

1. Reusable rockets: #Transport capacity and computing power, with attention to aerospace propulsion, Western materials, and 3D printing chains.
2. Phased array antennas: #Guobo Electronics, #Zhenlei Technology, #Fudan Microelectronics, etc.
3. Inter-satellite laser: #Fenghuo Communications (inter-satellite laser positioning exceeding expectations + fiber optic price increases), etc.
4. Solar wings: #Focus on GaAs cost reduction, with companies like Electric Science Blue Sky and Mingyang Intelligent; 5) SpaceX: #Independent and certain, with Western materials, Signalway Communications, etc.