Goldman Sachs Says UAE Real Estate Transactions Down 51% Quarter-over-Quarter Since Conflict Outbreak

Investing.com — Goldman Sachs states that since the ongoing conflict in the Middle East erupted, real estate transaction activity in the UAE has sharply declined, and regional uncertainty has begun to put pressure on real estate demand.

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The conflict has now entered its third week, causing turbulence across regional markets and increasing volatility in energy and financial assets. Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Harsh Mehta said that transaction data from early March shows a significant slowdown in real estate activity.

Goldman Sachs states that since the conflict began, the total transaction volume in the first half of March has decreased by 31% year-over-year and by 51% month-over-month.

This decline appears to surpass previous disruptions affecting the market. During the Dubai floods in April 2024, transactions decreased by about 19% month-over-month; during the Iran-Israel conflict in November 2024, transactions decreased by about 32%; and in June 2025, transactions decreased by about 17%.

The slowdown was even more pronounced in the second week of March. Goldman Sachs states that transaction volume year-over-year fell by 42%, mainly due to weakness in the secondary market (down 59% YoY), especially in the villa segment (down 89%).

At the same time, trading volume also declined significantly. Goldman Sachs reports that total trading volume decreased by 38% YoY, mainly driven by pre-sale segments (down 52%), especially apartments (down 59%).

Between March 1 and March 12, the median price per square foot for apartments fell by 3% YoY and by 8% month-over-month. Villa prices remained up on an annual basis, rising 16% YoY, but down 2% from the previous month.

During the same period, the average price per square foot for all property types increased by 1% YoY but decreased by 7% month-over-month.

Emaar Properties (DFM: EMAR), one of the largest real estate developers in the UAE and builder of landmarks such as the Burj Khalifa and Dubai Mall, has seen its stock price drop nearly 40% since the conflict began, as investors reassess the outlook for the region’s real estate sector.

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