"Super Strong El Niño Will Lead to Hottest Year" Trends on Social Media - Fact or Fiction? Expert Response

Source: CCTV News Client

Recently, topics such as “The next two years may become the hottest years in history” and “The Earth may experience a super El Niño phenomenon” have trended on the internet, attracting widespread public attention. Several media outlets report that multiple research institutions worldwide predict that a strong El Niño could occur later this year, disrupting global climate. This may not only trigger extreme heat, floods, droughts, and other disasters but also further raise global temperatures, potentially pushing summer temperatures this year and next to record highs. In response to these societal concerns, a reporter interviewed experts from the China Meteorological Administration for clarification.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere oscillation occurring in the tropical Pacific with a cycle of 3 to 7 years, representing natural variability in the climate system. ENSO phases are generally indicated by the duration and intensity of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (deviations from the climate average) in a fixed region of the central-eastern tropical Pacific.

If the 3-month moving average SST remains above 0.5°C for five consecutive months, it is considered a warm phase, called El Niño;

If it remains below -0.5°C for five months, it is a cold phase, called La Niña;

If the SST fluctuates between -0.5°C and 0.5°C, it is considered a neutral state.

△Image source: National Climate Center

Possible Entry into El Niño State in Late Spring

Based on the latest monitoring data and forecasts from multiple climate models domestically and internationally, the China Meteorological Administration’s National Climate Center indicates that La Niña is nearing its end, and a neutral state is expected to follow. The SST in the tropical central-eastern Pacific is likely to continue rising, and an El Niño could develop in late spring this year.

Climate expert Liu Yunyun explained that, historically, about one-third of La Niña events end with the onset of El Niño in the same year. Different models worldwide predict varying timings for the development of El Niño, with earliest forecasts as early as April and latest as late summer or early autumn. For example:

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts April;

Australia forecasts May;

Japan Meteorological Agency predicts June;

U.S. experts’ voting suggests July to September.

Overall, the likelihood of entering an El Niño phase in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in the second half of this year is high, but the exact timing and overall strength remain uncertain. Currently, international climate models show significant divergence, and no consensus has been reached. Therefore, it is premature to conclude that a “super El Niño” will occur this year.

Climate expert Chen Lijuan pointed out that El Niño events are often associated with global temperature increases. However, the specific temperature rise and extreme weather manifestations depend on the strength, type, and regional climate response of El Niño, requiring ongoing monitoring and analysis. It is too early to definitively say that an ultra-strong El Niño will cause the hottest year.

Weather and climate change are closely related to people’s lives and economic development. As a result, information in this field tends to attract high public attention. Amid frequent extreme weather events, there is a vast amount of weather and climate information. Currently, discussions on social media about “hottest years” and “extreme weather” are lively, but some information may be exaggerated or taken out of context.

Chen Lijuan advises the public to view forecast information rationally. Climate predictions carry uncertainties, especially regarding the exact timing, strength, and regional impacts of El Niño, which require dynamic monitoring and forecasting. The public should pay attention to real-time updates from authoritative sources rather than isolated extreme statements. It is recommended to follow official channels such as the National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration’s website and official social media platforms, and regularly check authoritative reports like ENSO monitoring bulletins. International organizations like the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also publish periodic global climate assessments, which can serve as references.

Finally, regardless of whether El Niño occurs, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather has become a new normal in global climate change. Scientific responses are essential. The public should stay alert to weather warnings and prepare accordingly. Agricultural producers should plan farming activities reasonably, and city managers should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power, water supply, and transportation.

(Reported by Wu Wei, CCTV)