Unprecedented! Oscar sweeps $120 million in a single night - what is this true "little golden man"? Traditional prediction markets are being completely reshuffled by the compliance wave!

Oscar’s red carpet and trophies are no longer the only focus this year. While Conan O’Brien hosts the awards ceremony at the Dolby Theatre, another data-driven event is happening simultaneously. Traders on the two major platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have invested over $120 million in Oscar-related contracts.

This is the largest recorded capital flow in a regulated prediction market during award season. Among them, Kalshi alone has surpassed $58 million in trading volume, with figures continuing to rise throughout the ceremony. This scale is roughly six to seven times the total trading volume of last year’s award season, representing a significant leap.

Market observers point out that the immediate trigger for this surge was the milestone guidance and proposed rules issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission three days ago. These provide a clear federal regulatory pathway for platforms like Kalshi. Traders responded with record-breaking funds, reacting to this long-awaited regulatory certainty.

Collective intelligence was put to the ultimate test in this entertainment event. The flow of funds on the platforms clearly revealed market betting focuses: Best Actor contracts gathered about $25 million, the most competitive; Best Picture contracts followed closely with around $24 million, with “Everything Everywhere All at Once” favored; contracts for Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress attracted approximately $7 million and $5 million respectively.

Even entertainment industry celebrities participated personally. Investor Kevin O’Leary, known as “Mr. Wonderful,” publicly admitted on the red carpet that he personally bet $1,000 on Kalshi that Timothy Chalamet would win Best Actor. This was purely a personal action, with no commercial involvement.

The market’s real-time reactions even incorporated award show dialogue. The host’s opening monologue mentioned artificial intelligence and joked about Chalamet’s previous comments on ballet and opera—comments that once affected the odds for Best Actor on Kalshi until traders remembered that Oscar voting had already closed, prompting the market to readjust.

Every award announcement caused immediate fluctuations in market prices. Audience members shifted from passive viewers to active participants engaging through market perspectives. Kalshi’s integration with film review data and its simple mobile app greatly lowered the barrier for public participation.

As the final award was announced, regardless of whether the film swept the major prizes, one thing was clear: this year’s Oscars had an invisible winner—the explosive growth of compliant prediction markets. It proved that within a clear regulatory framework, collective intelligence and pop culture can generate enormous energy and scale.

This may also serve as a case study for the future of broader prediction-based financial products, including cryptocurrencies like $BTC, $ETH, and others, highlighting the potential for compliance and mainstream adoption.

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