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The oil market is now split into two worlds.
Futures are at 100–104 USD, tightly suppressed by policy and past experience.
While the actual spot market is at 140–150 USD.
Four years ago when Russia-Ukraine war broke out, futures surged to 139 USD first, while spot only followed the rally, with a spread of just 10–13 USD. Because the barrel didn't really get cut off, just changed hands.
It's different now. It's not "fear of being cut off," it's actually being cut off.
Long-term oil prices will definitely trend down, but the short-term dynamic game is actually quite interesting.