March 16, 2026

Monday's performance was quite good. Bitcoin's price broke through 74,000 at its highest, refreshing the high point from over a month ago. Ethereum did the same, nearly touching $2,300. Compared to the sluggish trends of the past few months, the recent weeks of market action can be described as noteworthy. Therefore, we have reason to continue looking forward to the broader market's performance ahead. Generally speaking, during the consolidation phase within a major downtrend, we shouldn't have overly high expectations for rebound gains. However, I believe there are several supporting factors this time.

First, from the trend within the circle, significantly more losses have been erased from the relative highs. Bitcoin has been cut in half, mainstream coins have universally fallen 70-80%, and altcoins have suffered even worse, with many declining 90%. Therefore, the downside space will be very limited. Conversely, from the perspective of major players, after accumulating positions, a pull-up would be extremely cost-effective. There's also the cycle angle—yes, prices have fallen significantly, but the bear market cycle is also not bad. Therefore, even following a bear market rhythm, it's about time for a rebound now, followed by the start of a new major downtrend.

Second, there's the external environment. Although the first thing everyone thinks of is the crash risk in US stocks, Bitcoin's price has actually risen despite falling in the Middle East crisis backdrop. From our perspective, this is clearly money flowing against the trend, which suggests that the next phase of market action won't be too bad. Of course, I need to remind once more that what we're entering is a rebound rally within a bear market cycle—it doesn't even meet the conditions of a minor bull market. Therefore, the recommendation is to sell on rallies, not to